Seeing a bid replenish above 80k. I think as long as 80k holds, looks like we could easily run upwards from here. I am bullish for as long as we hold above 80k and I bought more BTC close it this morning.

Honestly, I think Trump's tariffs were the cherry on top that prolonged the correction beyond what it otherwise would have been. It seems that if the tariff war starts showing signs of resolution, the market could surge by 5,000 points rapidly. On the other hand, more tariff-related fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) hasn’t really moved the needle much, as we’ve failed to break 80,000 repeatedly this week. So, there’s an obvious skew toward playing the long side. Plus, there are plenty of catalysts that could propel us upward, including Saylor’s recent $21 billion offering. If he manages to secure that, it would be a game-changer.

Nothing very exciting is happening in the market. I consider anything around or below 80k to be <investable prices>. There's a lot of chatter about the hyperliquid whale, which is short 6k+ BTC on high leverage, with liquidation currently sitting at 85.5k. I have no edge in guessing their intentions or whether they are hedged elsewhere, etc. But it's the narrative of the week, so it's worth keeping an eye on here: https://hypurrscan.io/address/0xf3F496C9486BE5924a93D67e98298733Bb47057c

Other than that, I try to keep my scalps to myself to avoid adding noise to this channel; any position is short-lived. There were some good developments, like yesterday’s $275M inflows into BTC ETFs, but prices didn’t go up. This, coupled with the good ETH news regarding staking ETF filings and the fact that we are still trading well below the SBR announcement levels (89k), actually suggests more of a bear market behavior. My strategy is to keep a pile of cash in case we see much lower prices and to DCA into BTC in the coming months. I wouldn’t be surprised if we trade below Saylor’s break-even for a while, even if we dip to 50k. I think it’s inevitable that Bitcoin will trade much higher in the future, but the short- to medium-term outlook seems uncertain.

For those wondering why the change of heart from this quoted post: Yesterday, the stock market performed well, while Bitcoin did not. On top of that, there was a large, already short player with a public liquidation price, and we couldn’t even reach it. I think as long as 80k holds, there is hope. But after reflection, there are no signs that participants have any appetite for risk in BTC. I think the probability that we break below 80k in the near future, regardless of the volatility within the 80k–90k range, is high given this new information. Even if the hyperliquid bear-whale gets liquidated, its liquidation might simply be another opportunity for profit-taking, in the absence of Saylor and global risk appetite for Bitcoin.

The hyperliquid whale just covered his short, which explains this pump from 82k to 83k+ in a few minutes.

I honestly find it shocking that 6,000 BTC of buy pressure can be absorbed so quickly on the sell side within minutes. It feels like 6,000 BTC of sell pressure has a much greater impact than those buys did. This reminds me of Saylor aggressively placing large buy orders at $97,000, yet the price barely moved. It makes me think this $80,000 floor is unlikely to hold.

The market showed a strong bullish reaction to the FOMC announcement, it seems. The stock market surged by 60 points, and Bitcoin pumped $3,000. I think it looks decent for buying the dips if we get any. I'm not convinced that we're immediately back in a full bull trend, but we have seen reversals around FOMC time in previous markets. As long as the 83k–84k area holds from here, I think we're set for more upside. For the first time in a while I'll place bids and take a chance.

Trump will be speaking at the digital asset summit tomorrow, perhaps this helped propel things up. So it will be important to listen to what he says.

No follow-up on the upside, similar to how the downside couldn't sustain previously. Seems like sellers have exhausted their supply, while new buyers are yet to be found. The market doesn't behave like a bearish market nor a bullish market as of late. Truly an environment to lose money if you're trading size and taking directions with strong intent. Potentially reducing size for however long it takes or not trading and picking up other skill sets is the best move. Happy early weekend 🍻

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Some nice little Sunday relief—nothing to overanalyze. The market remains extremely choppy and lacks the volume it had a couple of months ago. The 80k level has proven itself as a solid yearly pivot, with 76k potentially marking the bottom. That said, a retest of the 80k area could easily happen if follow-up FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) emerges. Should that occur—especially if triggered by negative headlines—it would present a prime opportunity to go long on BTC. For now, I don’t expect us to break out of the 80k-90k range anytime soon. We could be in for a prolonged choppy period unless JPOW (Jerome Powell) fires up the money printer.

Didn’t update here in a while. Nothing special peaks my interest; some short term scalps in the 80k-90k range. I dumped what I bought around 80k at 88k, nice 10% on spot. I’m not very convinced that we’re out of the correction yet. Could easily retest 80k.

My instincts are telling me to hedge and be cautious here. Saylor buying 700M+ on high interest debt isn’t a good look. Have stables ready to deploy in case of a big dip.

This is a bit of sensationalism for the sake of viewpoints, but I don’t think 50k is impossible. Unfortunately, I see this Binance futures spoofing, combined with declining open interest, as a sign that some whales are exiting the market. The peak came shortly after the last Saylor headline (MicroStrategy buys $550M), possibly during his final $170M buy announcement. Since then, everything points to distribution, with GameStop pumping their stock using a BTC strategy headline.

I’ve pretty much hedged everything at 88k and will be keeping an eye on things. I’m not doing anything drastic like going net short, but this is the first time in ages I’m neutral. If we drop below 80k, I think 50k becomes realistic as a worst-case scenario—potentially an accumulation zone.

I'm still not convinced we're in a bullish market, but shorting BTC with tailwinds like these doesn't feel right either. I'm holding very little spot compared to my historical risk tolerance and will keep fiat ready to buy dips if they occur. If they start buying, it could be a major bullish catalyst. Until then, I'm unsure if they'll actually go through with it.

Since opportunity cost is a real factor, if we reclaim 90k within any significant timeframe, I intend to un-hedge what I sold and hedged at 88k. Until then, caution around 88k is warranted.