Sarmatian think tank

Forwarded from 📍UBERSOY📝

The best case scenario for Ukraine was to peace out in December 2022 after inflicting heavy casualties on the Russians.

However they got overconfident and cocky. Having highly overestimated their own capabilities they imagined that the Russians lost in 2022 because they were weak willed and a paper tiger, yet they were fatally mistaken. I kid you not but I remember listening to Ukrainian military experts talking about how Russians would flee in 2023 after seeing the new Western equipment they just had received on the battlefield.

Russians lost in 2022 not because they were cowards or used inferior equipment but because they didn’t have enough manpower for the second echelon of defense in Kharkiv and Kherson. People have an impression that because Russia is big, it probably also outnumbers the Ukrainians on the battlefield, but that’s a lie at least in 2022 when Ukrainians have outnumbered them by a factor of 2 and by more in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, which is why Russians have decided to pull off from there.

The moment the Russians have resolved their manpower shortages they have successfully defended against completely Western equipped assaults with HIMARS, Storm Shadows, Leopards, Abrahams and etc during the 2023 summer offensive.

By that point all smart people have already made their final conclusions, however Ukraine had the last trump card which was a regime change in Russia. However, it failed even harder than the summer offensive, because after the mutiny Russia has essentially banned all private military organizations and removed all Putin critics from power.

As of present Russia possesses a 1.5 manpower advantage over Ukraine while Ukraine is struggling to even keep this advantage at 1.5 despite their highly authoritarian methods of conscription that had triggered a massive outflow of young men out of the cities, hundreds of whom have drowned on their way out of Ukraine. This along with other technological developments such as guided bombs and FAB-3000 allows Russia to advance through Ukraine with accelerating speed and there is not much of a counter to that.

www.tgoop.com/Sarmatianthinkthank/1902

49 viewsNov 23 at 14:03

The best case scenario for Ukraine was to peace out in December 2022 after inflicting heavy casualties on the Russians.

However they got overconfident and cocky. Having highly overestimated their own capabilities they imagined that the Russians lost in 2022 because they were weak willed and a paper tiger, yet they were fatally mistaken. I kid you not but I remember listening to Ukrainian military experts talking about how Russians would flee in 2023 after seeing the new Western equipment they just had received on the battlefield.

Russians lost in 2022 not because they were cowards or used inferior equipment but because they didn’t have enough manpower for the second echelon of defense in Kharkiv and Kherson. People have an impression that because Russia is big, it probably also outnumbers the Ukrainians on the battlefield, but that’s a lie at least in 2022 when Ukrainians have outnumbered them by a factor of 2 and by more in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, which is why Russians have decided to pull off from there.

The moment the Russians have resolved their manpower shortages they have successfully defended against completely Western equipped assaults with HIMARS, Storm Shadows, Leopards, Abrahams and etc during the 2023 summer offensive.

By that point all smart people have already made their final conclusions, however Ukraine had the last trump card which was a regime change in Russia. However, it failed even harder than the summer offensive, because after the mutiny Russia has essentially banned all private military organizations and removed all Putin critics from power.

As of present Russia possesses a 1.5 manpower advantage over Ukraine while Ukraine is struggling to even keep this advantage at 1.5 despite their highly authoritarian methods of conscription that had triggered a massive outflow of young men out of the cities, hundreds of whom have drowned on their way out of Ukraine. This along with other technological developments such as guided bombs and FAB-3000 allows Russia to advance through Ukraine with accelerating speed and there is not much of a counter to that.

BY Sarmatian think tank