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Official world gold reserves have reached 1,170 million fine troy ounces, the most since the 1970s

Over the last 13 years, world central banks' gold holdings are up roughly 21%. Global gold reserves are now even higher than just before President Nixon broke the US Dollar's link to gold in 1971. In 2022 and 2023 alone, world central banks bought 1081 and 1037 tons of gold, respectively. Meanwhile, gold is up 15% year to date and 85% over the last 5 years. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

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DXY index

This index usually has a direct relationship with the interest rate and an inverse relationship with the price of gold and EURUSD. From this chart, it can be said that there is little expectation of a further reduction in the interest rate in the next Fed meeting.

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This is a massive investment chart!

Gold has now outperformed bonds over the past 50 years.

This means that, apart from ballooning debt and central bank balance sheets, the output of traditional mean-variance optimization models will change. Many, if not most, traditional investors consider these models the most straightforward and objective way to determine a strategic asset allocation. Hence, based on the output of these models, traditional investors must move away from bonds and into gold. This is part of 'The Great Rebalancing,' shaping portfolio allocations in the coming years.

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The average Bitcoin cycle:
Starts 170 days after halving
Peaks 480 days after halving

We are currently 147 days after the $BTC halving

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How Inflation Breaks Our Brains

From salt riots to toilet paper runs, history shows that rising prices make consumers—and voters—grumpy and irrational.

Eric Boehm | From the October 2024 issue

When Russian peasants set fire to hundreds of buildings in Moscow in 1648, the acute cause was a sharp rise in the price of salt. When they rioted again 12 years later, it was to protest a government policy that made copper money equal in value to coins made from silver—a policy that naturally caused widespread price inflation.

An increase in the price of bread, and an inept government response to it, helped set the French Revolution on its bloody course.

Periodic violence targeting Jews and other minority groups throughout European history has been linked to inflation and other sources of economic instability. The most infamous and horrific of those incidents, of course, began as an attempt to scapegoat Jews for the spike in inflation that plagued Germany in the wake of World War I. American history, too, is littered with panics, riots, and upheaval caused by sudden rises in prices and the public's perception that they are being ripped off. In the early days of the American experiment, indebted Massachusetts farmers took up arms against the new federal government's monetary policies. Two centuries later, dozens of farmers drove their tractors to the front door of the Federal Reserve in downtown D.C. to protest rising costs.

It may be tempting to dismiss the unsettling history that links high inflation with political unrest and aggressive xenophobia. Americans living today are the richest cohort of human beings ever to inhabit the planet. Surely we're not as susceptible to the psychological effects of inflation as our forebears, for whom a spike in the price of basic goods might be a matter of life and death?

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Can you sell a $20 Bill for $200? | INOMICS

Every year, Max Bazerman, a Harvard Business School professor runs the exact same experiment with his students. In short form, he auctions off a $20 bill but places strict rules on how the betting can take place regulating who pays, and who wins ...

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Ranked: U.S. States vs. G7 Countries by GDP per Capita

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💦The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust

🤔ON PRESENT policies and performance, the United States is condemned to slower growth than the other main industrial countries for the foreseeable future.” So declared the Competitiveness Policy Council, a committee advising America’s president and Congress, in 1992, a time when America was gripped by concerns that its economy was declining and losing ground to Japan and Europe. The opposite turned out to be true. Japan entered a long period of stagnation, Europe’s growth fizzled and America experienced a mini-boom, fuelled by the rise of the internet.

🤔More than three decades later, some are again painting pictures of an American economy heading towards decline. China is now the rising juggernaut in the East. Donald Trump, instead of Bill Clinton, is the candidate for president lamenting the state of the economy (Mr Trump says it is “failing”, where Mr Clinton called it an “unpleasant economy stuck somewhere between Germany and Sri Lanka”). Ordinary Americans are anxious. Gallup, a polling firm, regularly asks Americans if they are satisfied with how things are going. From 1980 until the early 2000s, a little more than 40%, on average, said they were. Over the past two decades that has dropped to 25%.

🤔Are the prophets of decline onto something this time? Since the rollicking 1990s the American economy has suffered occasional upheavals, including the dot-com bust, the global financial crisis, a spike in unemployment during the covid-19 pandemic and, most recently, a surge in inflation. In purchasing-power-parity (PPP) terms America’s share of the global economy has indeed shrunk, from 21% in 1990 to 16% now.

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💦A short history of Taiwan and China, in maps


🤔 The Chinese Communist Party’s obsession with the island is about more than just territory
Jul 10th 2024

🤔 JUST 12 STATES recognise Taiwan’s government. Others all have relations with the Chinese government in Beijing, and so at least tacitly accept its argument that there is only one China, of which Taiwan is a part. To refer to Taiwan they use purposely vague language, such as “self-governing island”. Even the Taiwanese tread carefully around the subject of their independence—after all, China has warned that a declaration of independence would be grounds for invasion. Our eight maps below explain the foundation of Taiwan and its changing relationship with the mainland.


🤔 Start with the 16th century, when swashbuckling Europeans first came across the island on their travels. Legend has it that Portuguese sailors yelled out “ilha formosa!”, or “beautiful island!”, when passing by in the late 1500s. Although the Portuguese never established a base on the island, Europeans who eventually colonised it adopted the name Formosa...

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💦 global leaders in food exports

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💦 An American purchase of Greenland could be the deal of the century

🔹Although America has a history of taking a commercial approach to international relations, purchases are rarely made without controversy. When Thomas Jefferson bought Louisiana in 1803, doubling the size of the country, he had to set aside his zest for constitutional constructivism, which would have ruled out such bold federal action. Sixty-four years later, when William Seward, then secretary of state, purchased Alaska from Russia for $7.2m ($162m today), the move was dubbed “Seward’s folly”. Now the Alaska deal is seen as a masterstroke and the Louisiana purchase the greatest achievement of one of America’s greatest presidents. In hindsight, both look extraordinarily good value.

🔹 History will not be as kind to Donald Trump if he coerces Denmark to give up Greenland. On January 7th the president-elect declined to rule out using military might or economic warfare in his pursuit of Greenland (and of the Panama Canal). America will lose friends if it bullies one into ceding territory. But Mr Trump’s provocations are also foolish because an agreement to buy Greenland, made freely and in good will, could indeed be another deal of the century. Such a deal would increase America’s security, and perhaps that of its NATO allies, too. Autocrats would be dispirited. And a purchase could also benefit the inhabitants of the island, who must—and surely would—have the final say.

🔹What, then, is Greenland worth? One starting point is the island’s annual GDP. At last count, in 2021, it was $3bn, or one seven-thousandth of America’s. Only 56,000 people live in Greenland, despite the fact it is bigger than any American state. Much of the territory’s output is the work of the 43% of the labour force employed by the state (against 15% in America). Over half the government’s bills are paid by Denmark, which gives the territory $500m a year. The biggest industry is fishing. Removing the public sector, ignoring other spending commitments, assuming Greenland’s long-run growth continues and America’s federal government receives 16% of GDP in tax (the national average), as well as discounting using America’s 30-year Treasury yield, produces a valuation of $50bn, or a twentieth of America’s annual defence spending.

🔹Yet Mr Trump covets Greenland for its strategic and economic potential, rather than its puny output. The island sits between America and Russia in a part of the world that is becoming more navigable as Arctic ice melts. Although America’s Pituffik Space Base on the territory’s north-west coast already provides the armed forces with missile-warning sensors, an American Greenland might better monitor the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap, a strip of the Atlantic Ocean that is the access route for Russian submarines to America’s east coast, and to the North Atlantic.

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2025/01/30 01:11:03
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