In this analysis we have estimated a reduction in the total, pre-war emissions during the first 18 months of the war to be 158 MtCO2-eq. At the same time, 18 months of war resulted in additional 77 Mt CO2-eq. of emissions.

Our estimate of the war-related emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O for the first 18 months of the war in Ukraine is 77 MtCO2-eq., with the symmetric interval of combined relative uncertainty estimated to be +/– 22 % (95 % confidence interval), with a standard deviation σ = 8.804 MtCO2-eq.

The Ukrainian Environmental Protection Minister was quoted on October 18, 2022 with an estimate of 31 MtCO2-eq. emissions for the first 7 months of war (Birnbaum, 2022), but without specifying the structure of these emissions. de Klerk et al. (2023) show the numbers as 21.9 MtCO2-eq. from warfare and 19.7 MtCO2-eq. from res, but this only covers the first 12 months of the war, and the same war-related emission processes and accounting boundaries are not always considered.

We estimated CO2 emissions from forest fires during 18 months of the war to be 16.73 MtCO2-eq. (+/− 44.2 %), including 14.84 Mt of CO2, 44.5 kt of CH4, and 2.46 kt of N2O

Regarding emissions from fires of agricultural lands, we estimated these to be 6.46 MtCO2-eq. (+/− 84.7 %), including 5.73 Mt of CO2, 17.2 kt of CH4, and 0.95 kt of N2O.

According to the NIR submitted by Ukraine in 2023 the total GHG emissions/removals for 2021, in all sectors, amounted to 224.2 Mt CO2, 2862 kt CH4, and 147.0 kt N2O, with a total of 339.

Based on the emissions of this sector in 2021 (NIRU, 2023), it is possible to estimate the reduction of emissions in the public electricity and heat production sector in 2022 to be 27.1 MtCO2-eq. (27.0 MtCO2, 1.2 ktCH4, and 0.38 ktN2O). Given that this reduction occurred over a period of 311 days, starting on February 24, 2022, we roughly estimated the reduction of emissions in the public power and heat production sector during the first 18 months of the war (from February 24, 2022 to August 23, 2023) to be 47.7 MtCO2-eq.

Petroleum storage depots throughout Ukraine were destroyed by missile attacks. During the first 18 months of the war the fires occurred at more than 30 major oil depots in many regions.

The largest oil re neries of Ukraine were also destroyed: Kremenchutsk (capacity of 18.6 million tons of oil per year), Lysychansk (16 million tons), Kherson, and Odesa.

On this basis, the total GHG emissions caused by fires at all these facilities during 18 months of the war was calculated as 5.43 MtCO2-eq. (+/– 20.3 %), including 5.41 Mt of CO2, 210 t of CH4, and 42.1 t of N2O.

In 2014, three Ukrainian provinces/oblasts were occupied by the Russian Federation: 1.) Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol city (area 26,861 km2); 2.) Donetsk oblast (8062 km2); and 3.) Lugansk oblast (8377 km2). The total area of these territories not controlled by Ukraine after 2014 was more than 43,300 km2, which is greater than the area of the Netherlands (41,500 km2). Moreover, the latter two regions are highly industrialized. Large power plants, metallurgical plants, coke plants, hard coal mines, etc. are located in these regions.
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Coke plants located in the eastern part of Ukraine practically did not work starting from February 24, 2022. Based on the emissions of this sector in 2021 (NIRU, 2023), we calculated the reduction of emissions in 2022 to be 3.25 MtCO2-eq., and for the first 18 months of the war to be 5.71 MtCO2-eq.

The total emissions of CO2 from the use of fossil fuels amounted to 159.7 Mt.

We do not have complete input data on what the restoration of Ukraine will include, but even with simplified estimates based on the area of destroyed buildings (approx. 0.3t CO2 eq./m2) and the length of destroyed roads (approx. 65 t CO2 eq./km of road) we get to emissions in the order of 600 million tons of CO2 eq.
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This second interim assessment concludes that greenhouse gas emissions attributable to twelve months of the war totalled to 120 million tCO2e.
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Industries and business services have also been severely impacted, further exacerba ng emissions from reconstruction efforts in those sectors. Total emissions: 50.2 million tCO2e.

While fires subsided during the winter, they are expected to intensify again as temperatures rise in the spring. Total emissions: 17.7 million tCO2e.
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Carriers were forced to take detours on routes to East and Southeast Asia resulting in longer flight times, as well as added fuel costs and higher greenhouse gas emissions. Total emissions: 12 million tCO2.
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Russia’s military would likely be responsible for the emissions of about 20 million tCO2e, while Ukrainian military – for approximately 3 million tCO2e.
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The emissions from the use of artillery ammunition include the following:
• 1,530,000 tCO2e due to manufacturing of ammunition (steel casing and explosives);
• 30,825 tCO2e due to emissions at the point of firing and at the point of impact;
• 2,138 tCO2e due to emissions from detonation at the point of impact.
Overall emissions associated with the use of ammunition and explosives would be at least 2 million tCO2e.

In the UK military-industrial sector generate 6.5 million tCO2e in 2017-2018

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