Update: public did not give back, the Lions are a money-printing machine

Brrrrr

He’s back

I guess I’ll go sit in my corner 😭😭😭

25/11 Briefing

Hey everyone!

I didn't really expect Sunday to be full of winners. All I wanted was cappers to get on their streaks. LC, TPD did not do it. Only EP lost and is now coming off 2 losses. I will consider EP as the main option for today.

A couple words on the NFL. This season is tough — eye-test: cappers aren't doing even 60% of what they're capable of. I see the reason for such poor results in the fact that NFL is the hardest league to predict. Simple example: last season, 55.5% of all games stayed UNDER the total. This season: 53.5% OVERS.

The NFL's hottest betting trend the last few years has been primetime (Thursday, Monday, and Sunday Night Football games) UNDERs. Going below the point total hit at an 60.2% clip over the last six seasons and it hit in nearly 70% of Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night games in 2023-24.

This season? Primetime OVERS are slightly dominating: 18-17-1 to the OVER. Away favorites have been the most successful angle in the NFL this season so far: 40-29-3 (58%) ATS. Other than that, all other angles aren't hitting above 53%.

So what's the solution?

Well, we can just not bet on the NFL at all — less stress, less losses (less potential winners). There's enough room for betting without NFL. But we're paying cappers — they have to improve. Jumping from one capper to another is also not the smartest decision...

Maybe we (especially me since I'm the one to take all responsibility) just haven't been too smart to realize how silly we were 🤓 Because it feels like this season has been so easy and we were trying to find the traps and there was no traps at all.

Live and learn. Adjust. Be patient. That's how it goes in betting. Anyways, I'm good with not betting the NFL but I'll keep trying to find good stuff.

But we’re all betting on Monday night football anyways, right?

Looks like Ravens and OVER are the most obvious plays for today. And as always cappers have action on all sides of this game:

Cody (12-5 totals; 10-3 ML picks) has OVER and Ravens ML

Duck (3-11) has the OVER too...

And there's a ton of other cappers who have Chargers and unders.

No clear consensus today. So I can't jinx anything today 😭

They told me to sit in the corner yesterday

Now they tell me I will suffer

You guys crack me up 🤣

The perfect guide to finding yourself a capper

There's so many touts selling sports picks these days because people by nature are a) are greedy and want to get rich quick and b) don't think for themselves and would rather give the money to someone else to give them sports picks

The guy from the screenshot above legit told me he hates his job and wants to start betting to get rich. Do you think he will succeed? Well I surely hope he does but I'm also sure he will be a daily sportsbook depositor because it simply doesn't work like that

Grow up people, it's a cruel world we live in

Spontaneous Thanksgiving rollover

Live: Goff under 21.5 completions -135

I liked that prop pre game anyways. Only 4 times in 11 games has Goff made over 21 completions. Detroit has established a comfortable lead, so I'm expecting they will caryy the ball more and burn the clock.

Risking 1 turkey to win 1.74 turkeys

There's nothing outstanding in the cappers' action so far — all action is focused on the night game.

Since the money-printing machine in the face of the Lions jammed today, the next most obvious move would be to take the Cowboys.

Cowboys are coming off a very impressive win as a 10-pt underdog against the Commanders. Giants got blown out at home by the Bucs

Give me the Giants with the points

1.74 turkeys to win 3.23 turkeys

P.S. I absolutely suck at handicapping so be warned🤠

Dolphins / Packers. Mixed action as always.

On the one hand:

Prof Locks POW (Packers -3) (33-15 all-time, 13-5 NFL, 4-0 this month)

On the other hand:

TPD (Dolphins +3.5) (26-15 coming off 3 wins, 15-7 NFL on Thursdays)
AFS (Dolphins +3.5) (12-10 NFL, 19-8 on Thursdays, 22-8 coming off 2 wins)
BTBB (Dolphins +4) (28-10 on Thursdays)

Would've been great if Prof did not drop his POW on Packers. Not playing anything here. My two cents: the setup on Dolphins looks better.

Did I talk about “not overthinking it”? 🙄😂