As I’ve said Africa is far from exempt from the demographic crisis. African fertility falling fast. It will likely not level off at a 2.5 TFR average as many seem to think. TFR projected to fall to just 3.8 across Africa by 2030 & SSA may peak by 2060.

Personally think TFR will average as low as 3.5 across Africa by 2030 & 2.5 by 2040. By 2060-2070 Africa will hit a peak population of below 2.5B. Africa will never hit 3B let alone the crazy projections of 4B.

https://www.mercatornet.com/to_the_surprise_of_demographers_african_fertility_is_falling

Israel’s future is Haredi & religious. The Haredi population may grow from almost 14% today to as much as 42%. Religious & Traditional Religious groups in Israel also have TFR well above replacement. Only secular Israelis below. They may fall from ~50% to less than 35%.

This is what happens when your a country with the population of California & you let in 470,000 new permanent residents per year but don’t have nearly enough housing. Surprised it’s not even lower considering it is coupled with an antinatalist individualist/consumerist culture.

Canada is a demographic basket case. They keep making housing scarcer which makes family formation harder.

🇲🇽👶Mexico (with a fertility rate of~1.5) is now well below Brazilian TFR. For a country with more than 100M people (& the country with the second largest population in Latin America) the implications of this fertility collapse are huge. Births have plummeted far below 1.9M a year. In addition, emigration will continue to hollow out the country.

Yep, TFR in Utah now lower than Non Hispanic White TFR in North Dakota, Kansas, Iowa, & Mississippi. End of Mormon magic. No US State with a population 3M+ has NHW TFR above 1.75. California’s NHW TFR is lower than that of Germany. Massachusetts’ is lower than that of Italy…

U.S. NHW TFR is becoming rapidly European (& reaching East Asian levels amongst liberal NHWs) in some places. The U.S., Australia, UK used to be demographic outliers in that regard a decade plus ago. No longer. Only solution is to make motherhood prestigious. This will help make three and four child families sought after.

🇮🇹👶Italy sees significant June decline in births. # of births during the 1st half of 2024 is down 1.44% compared to the 1st half of 2023. For comparison births in the first 5 months of 2024 were only down 0.7%. TFR on track to = all time low of 1995 (1.19).

Due to its rapidly aging population and low fertility rate the European Union’s Economy has a good chance of being the same size in 2050 as it is today. Demographic decline has enormous consequences.

https://t.co/XBw6JgQZVY

In the United States the cumulative decline in births among women under age 35 is equivalent to 550 fewer lifetime births per 1,000 women,whereas the increase among women ages 35 & up is equivalent to 50 additional lifetime births per 1,000 women. That’s the crisis we face today.

🇹🇭👶Thailand has now reported births for the first three quarters of 2024. Births are down ~11%. It’s basically a given Thailand will have sub 1.0 TFR now. The country is so large (66M people) that the demographic crisis will impact all its neighbors. https://stat.bora.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/statMONTH/statmonth/#/mainpage

TFR for US Non Hispanic Whites (NHWs) stabilizing around 1.53. There is huge divergence within NHWs based on political affiliation. NHW conservatives likely ~1.7/8 while NHW liberals likely ~1.2/3.

🇨🇳👶 Aggressive pronatalism is now Chinese policy & its enforcement is the purview of government family planning associations, the same bodies that once enforced the one-child policy. Now, however, they are working to promote the official “new fertility culture”.

The resources devoted to this effort have truly been significant. For example, in Miyun, a district of Beijing with ~500,000 residents, local family planning officials have set up a 500 person propaganda team to promote pro natalism & the three child ideal.

Now to be sure this Chinese pro natalist interventionism is far less than that during the one child policy & much of it consists of spreading the governments pronatalist message & informing women of many free pregnancy & child care resources now offered by the state.

However, I have many doubts as to the effectiveness of such an approach. Will it hurt? Unlikely. Will people start having 2-3 kids now that the government constantly messages that this is their social duty & provides lots of help to pregnant women+mothers? Almost certainly not.

https://t.co/gzYCBP7AWz

Currently in the United States around 2.6 million baby boomers die annually. This number will rise to 4 million annually by 2037. That generations passing will completely change the political, social, and religious landscape. One cannot underestimate the scale of this change.

While the UN estimates are roughly correct that the population of South America will top out at ~470 million by 2050, the drop after that point will be much more dramatic. Based on current plummeting TFR trends we’re seeing from Colombia to Chile it’s likely the total pop will be well below 325M by 2100.

🇸🇪👶If births from January to August are any guide (down ~1.6%)Swedish births will fall below 100,000 this year for the first time in more than two decades. TFR falling across all groups including immigrants. National TFR to stay below 1.45 (for comparison it was 1.85 in 2016).

TFR for ethnic Swedes could hit as low as sub 1.40 this year. Ethnic Swedish births will also make up less than 70% of births in 2024. More than two thirds of Swedish population growth now driven by immigration. Sweden will look profoundly different come 2050.

The Caribbean is underreported but is entering a demographic doom loop. Things will be far worse than UN projections. Populations will peak earlier & lower (well before 2050). Biggest countries (Cuba, Jamaica, the DR) all far below replacement TFR with huge emigration levels.

If high emigration and very low TFR trends continue (Jamaica, Cuba are on sub 1.4 & some nations in the region are even lower) we can expect the population of the Caribbean to fall by almost half by 2100 to ~25M people.