By 2030 Hungary may have the same population it did in 1945. & it could have truly been even worse. If emigration had reached Bulgarian or Romanian levels Hungary would be cooked. Emigration combined with low TFR is the rapid nation killer,without it you have 30 years momentum.

Japan went below replacement in 1974 and did not see natural decline until 2005 whereas Moldova fell below replacement only on 1994 and started seeing natural decline in 1998. Albania fell below replacement in 2002 and saw its first year of natural decline in 2021 (COVID pushed).

Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Moldova etc all saw total population decline just a few years after dropping back below replacement as so many young people fled their countries. This did not happen in Japan, South Korea, or Japan which all got ~30+ years of population momentum.

🇹🇼👶Epic demographic decline in January in Taiwan. 14% year on year decline in the first month of 2025. Taiwan will hit South Korean TFR levels this year if this trend holds and may end up with a TFR of ~0.75.

https://www.stat.gov.tw/Statistics.aspx?n=2961&CaN=363

7.9 million Chinese births for 2025 is very possible. This is the beginning of the great Chinese die off. Natural decline of up to 3 million next year and 5 million+ a year by 2030. If TFR stays around 1.0-1.2 then by 2050 decline will climb to at least 10 million per year.

Very interested to see what the actual demographic situation is in the Philippines. Their birth data is sketchy most years to say the least. While it is probably sub 1.7 fertility it’s very difficult to say exactly. Accurate TFR in the south/ARMM would also be interesting.

Seen all the estimates but the birth registration updates are slow often giving an inaccurate picture most years. Considering the huge numbers of Filipinos working abroad this will have an outsized impact on the region.

El Salvador on 1.4 TFR, Guatemala on 1.85, Panama on 1.78, Costa Rica 1.15, Nicaragua 2.0, Honduras 2.1. With high emigration Central America looks set for natural decline relatively soon. This area could become the Western Hemisphere’s Eastern Europe demographically speaking.

When China gets to the 2050 pyramid basically nothing can be done to avoid losing many hundreds of millions of people. The die is cast. That is where many many countries will be by 2050. Germany, Japan, Italy, South Korea etc

With possible exception of France all major European Union countries (those with 30 million plus people)have disastrous fertility rates. Spain (49M) on 1.12, Poland (38M) on 1.10 in 2024 (far worse than 1.2 for 2023 shown here), Italy (58M) on 1.2, Germany (83M) on 1.36. Hard to pull out of this nosedive.

Countries with decent TFR but sub 10 million people won’t save Europe. The lack of fertility cults also hurts chances of any rebound. Don’t see culture changing dramatically enough in Spain, Germany, Italy, etc to get TFR back to 1.7/1.8. Nothing is impossible though 🤷‍♂️.

Staggering impact of the birth crisis on China: Hospitals are shutting their obstetrics units,enrollments in China’s kindergartens plummeted by more than five million in 2023 causing thousands to close,more than 170,000 preschool teachers lost their jobs.

https://t.co/aGN74knRuC

In 2024 the region of Russia with the highest fertility rate was Chechnya (just 1% of Russia’s population) at 2.71. The lowest was Leningrad Oblast at 0.89. Tuva (population sub 400,000) was the only administrative area besides Chechnya above replacement.

Tatarstan is close to the national TFR average on 1.44. The fertility rate in Buryatia has collapsed to 1.52 from 1.95 in 2020. In Moscow TFR is 1.46, in Saint Petersburg 1.26. In Bashkiria/Bashkortostan TFR is below the national average at just 1.36. In Mordovia TFR just 0.99.

fedpress.ru/article/3365231

Kiwis are emigrating in huge numbers. With that in mind New Zealand may have the highest Anglo fertility rate in the FVEY grouping of the U.S.,UK,Canada,Australia, & New Zealand. There was a net loss of 47,000 New Zealanders last year due to emigration.

While many Kiwis leave the number of births has not plummeted. In 2024 births even went up by ~1,400 to 58,300. Anglo Kiwis seem to have pretty decent TFR (similar to Australians) while immigrant TFR may follow a similar pattern to Australia. Main immigrant communities in NZ are from England, China, & India.

https://t.co/Z71AGmR6Q3

The Turkish government has sounded the alarm as its TFR declines to below 1.5. 2025 has now been declared the “year of family”. While these public relations moves rarely move the needle at least they bring more attention to the issue.

They will probably see their population peak below 93M despite immigration. The fertility rate fell from 2.16 in 2015 to 1.71 in 2021 to just 1.47 last year. EU fertility rate average now just slightly less. No one immune from demographic crisis.

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/amp/turkiye-declares-2025-as-year-of-family-to-curb-declining-birth-rates-204447

Non Hispanic Black births have a very low floor. IMHO NHB fertility will get as low as 1.1-1.2. Think Non Hispanic Whites have a significantly higher floor (of 1.3-1.4) as NHWs have breeder cult populations NHBs do not. We could see Non Hispanic Black TFR hit 1.35-1.4 in 2025.

https://x.com/charliesmirkley/status/1905316835949523446

22.8% of German women have no children and 25% only one over the course of their lifetime. German national fertility rate is 1.35.

The disaster in Myanmar/Burma will likely speed up mass emigration of Bamars & other peoples of the country to Thailand. Would not be surprised if 2M emigrate over the next two years. Very very sad series of events, civil war, natural disaster, bad governance…

There were just 369,922 Italian births in 2024. Fertility rate hit a new record low of ~1.18, lower than the past record low set in 1995 of just 1.19. With each passing year the population pyramid looks more & more like South Korea’s spinning top.

Births to two Italian citizen parents have been below 80% of total births for years now. Possibly below 75% of total last year.

Largest province of Argentina (Buenos Aires, population almost 18 million) has a similar fertility rate to Japan, Italy, & China.  This fall has been remarkable for its rapidity, like that for Argentina as a whole going from replacement level fertility in 2016 to below 1.3 today!