Oil: the final test of the year

The price of a barrel of WTI crude oil fell by 0.7% and was in danger of falling below $70. OPEC+ helped overcome this level at the end of last week. As predicted by observers, the cartel postponed the 'voluntary' increase in production by key members for another quarter.

OPEC+'s actions look like an attempt to prevent the price from spiralling downwards. Mere signals of a breakdown in cartel unity may be enough for prices to collapse. This creates a trap for large producers that are bound by production commitments, as they lose their market share, most worryingly to the US.

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#Shorts

#DXY: Growth into 2025

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2024/12/17 (GMT)

07:00 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change — Exp: 28.2K Actual: 0.3K

07:00 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.3% Actual: 4.3%

07:00 🇬🇧 Average Earnings Index — Exp: 4.6% | 5.0% Actual: 5.2% | 5.2%

09:00 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate — Exp: 85.5 Actual: 84.7

09:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Current Assessment — Exp: 84.0 Actual: 85.1

09:00 🇩🇪 IFO - Expectations — Exp: 87.5 Actual: 84.4

10:00 🇩🇪 ZEW Economic Sentiment — Exp: 6.8 Actual: 15.7

10:00 🇩🇪 ZEW Survey (Current Situation) — Exp: -92.6 Actual: -93.1

10:00 🇪🇺 ZEW Economic Sentiment — Exp: 12.2 Actual: 17.0

13:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.1% | 2.0% Actual: 0.0% | 1.9%

13:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI — Exp: 0.4% | 1.7% Actual: -0.1% | 1.6%

13:30 🇨🇦 Common Core CPI — Exp: 2.1% Actual: 2.0%

13:30 🇨🇦 Median Core CPI — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.6%

13:30 🇨🇦 Trimmed Core CPI — Exp: 2.6% Actual: 2.7%

13:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Retail Sales — Exp: 0.6% | 0.4% Actual: 0.7% | 0.2%

14:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.3% Actual: -0.1%


[Updated in real time]

AUDUSD Wave Analysis 16 December 2024

- AUDUSD reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6400

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USDCAD Wave Analysis 16 December 2024

- USDCAD reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6400

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EURGBP Wave Analysis 17 December 2024

- EURGBP reversed from resistance level 0.8300

- Likely to fall to support level 0.8225

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Apple Wave Analysis 17 December 2024

- Apple rising inside impulse wave 3

- Likely to reach resistance level 260.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2024/12/18 (GMT)

07:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.1% | 2.6% Actual: 0.1% | 2.6%

07:00 🇬🇧 Core CPI — Exp: 3.6% Actual: 3.5%

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Price Index — Exp: -0.1% | 3.7% Actual: 0.1% | 3.6%

07:00 🇬🇧 Producer Price Index Input — Exp: 0.2% | -2.5% Actual: 0.0% | -1.9%

13:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits — Exp: 1430K | 1.3% Actual: 1505K | 6.1%

13:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts — Exp: 1350K | 2.3% Actual: 1289K | -1.8%

15:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: -1600K Actual: -934K

19:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Rate Decision — Exp: 4.50% Actual: 4.50%

19:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Statement

19:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Economic Projections

19:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Press Conference

21:45 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: -0.2% | -0.4%


[Updated in real time]

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2024/12/19 (GMT)

00:00 🇳🇿 ANZ Business Confidence — Exp: 60.0 Actual: 62.3

00:00 🇦🇺 MI Inflation Expectations — Exp: 3.5% Actual: 4.2%

02:52 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Overnight Call Rate — Exp: 0.25% Actual: 0.25%

02:52 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Statement

06:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ BOJ Press Conference

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 4.75% Actual: 4.75%

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ MPC Official Bank Rate Votes — Exp: 0-2-7 Actual: 0-3-6

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Summary

13:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 229K Actual: 220K

13:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1890K Actual: 1874K

13:30 🇺🇸 Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 2.8% Actual: 3.1%

13:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index — Exp: 2.9 Actual: -16.4

15:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — Exp: 4.09M | 1.0% Actual: 4.15M | 4.8%

21:45 🇳🇿 Trade Balance — Exp: -1951M

23:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ National Consumer Price Index — Exp: 2.5%

23:30 🇯🇵 National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food — Exp: 2.6%


[Updated in real time]

Gold Wave Analysis 18 December 2024

- Gold under bearish pressure

- Likely to fall to support level 2555.00

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NZDUSD Wave Analysis 18 December 2024

- NZDUSD broke long-term support level 0.5770

- Likely to fall to support level 0.5500

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Bitcoin tests $100K again

The cryptocurrency market lost 3% in 24 hours amid a sell-off in financial markets following comments from the Federal Reserve. Capitalisation fell to $3.51 trillion, and at the low it dipped below $3.48 trillion - its lowest in more than a week. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell to 75, also hitting lows since 11 December.

Bitcoin is once again testing the $100,000 level, this time making attempts to dip below that round level. While the magnitude of bitcoin's decline is comparable to that of stocks, it is seen as a show of strength, as bitcoin often loses more. Over the past five and a half weeks, an upward trend has formed, and Bitcoin has fallen sharply from the upper to the lower boundary, where it seemingly attracts some interest. A trend breakdown can only be confirmed with a break of the 50-day moving average, which is now through $91,700 but heading to $94,000 by the end of the week.

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EURJPY Wave Analysis 19 December 2024

- EURJPY broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 165.00

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EURGBP Wave Analysis 19 December 2024

- EURGBP reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8300

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2024/12/20 (GMT)

01:00 🇨🇳 Loan Prime Rate — Exp: 3.10% | 3.60% Actual: 3.10% | 3.60%

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales With Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.5% | 0.8% Actual: 0.2% | 0.5%

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.0% | 0.7% Actual: 0.3% | 0.1%

10:30 🇷🇺 ⚡️ Key bank rate — Exp: 23.0% Actual: 21.0%

12:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Mary Daly Speaks

13:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index — Exp: 0.2% | 2.9% Actual: 0.1% | 2.8%

13:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending — Exp: 0.5% Actual: 0.4%

13:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales — Exp: 0.7% | 0.2% Actual: 0.6% | 0.1%


[Updated in real time]

How deep will crypto dive?

The crypto market continues to retreat, having lost 4.4% to $3.36 trillion in the last 24 hours and already over 11% from the all-time peak of $3.79 trillion set on Tuesday. While the sell-off in stock markets has slowed, cryptocurrencies are maintaining or even picking up the pace of the decline. This return to early December levels is reminiscent of the rally locking in from November or all the growth of 2024. In the former case, the sell-off could pause in the $3.2 trillion area (-5% from current levels), while in the latter case, the sell-off could pause in the territory below $3 trillion with potential above 12.5%. Despite the threat of a deeper correction, we remain positive on the outlook for the year ahead.

Bitcoin is back below $100K, getting support at $96K on Friday morning. A failure below $94.5K would signal a break of the uptrend of the last six weeks, while a fall below $92K on Friday or below $93K by the end of the week would bring the price under the 50-day moving average. In this case, time is playing on the side of the bears.

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