Citigroup Wave Analysis – 25 June 2025

- Citigroup rose above the resistance level 78.60

- Likely to rise to resistance level 84.65

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The crypto market is on the verge of previous extremes

The crypto market cap increased by another 1% to $3.31 trillion, reaching the threshold of increased volatility. Just above that, in the $3.40–3.55 trillion range, is a turning point, which has activated sellers and prevented the market from consolidating higher.

The cryptocurrency sentiment index is at 74, just 1 point below the ‘extreme greed’ zone and in the range of the highs of the second half of May. At that time, the market capitalisation was at approximately the same level.

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⚠️ UK — BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 11:00 GMT

⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 246K

🕒 Exp: 244K

🎯 Fact.: 236K 📈

⚠️ EU — ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks at 18:30 GMT

USDCAD Wave Analysis – 26 June 2025

- USDCAD reversed from the resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.3545

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Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 26 June 2025

- Nasdaq-100 broke major resistance level 22100.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 23000.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/06/27 (GMT)

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Core PCE Price Index — Exp: 0.1% | 2.6% Actual: 0.2% | 2.7%

12:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending — Exp: 0.1% Actual: -0.1%

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.0% | 1.3% Actual: -0.1% | 1.3%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 60.5 Actual: 60.7


[Updated in real time]

Silver Wave Analysis – 26 June 2025

- Silver reversed from key support level 35.50

- Likely to rise to resistance level 37.20

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Palladium Wave Analysis – 26 June 2025

Palladium broke resistance level 1100.00

Likely to rise to resistance level 1200.00

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The Middle East de-escalation supported risk appetite, hurting dollar

The conflict in the Middle East has restored the US dollar's status as a safe-haven asset, but that has also been its downfall. The inverse correlation with US stock indices amid growing global risk appetite has caused the USD index to hit three-year lows. Investors perceive the ceasefire as the end of the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran and are buying stocks.

Carry traders are actively using the US dollar as a funding currency. Since the beginning of the year, its effectiveness in arbitrage against a basket of emerging market currencies has exceeded 8%. The use of the yen in carry trades has yielded just over 2%, while the euro and Swiss franc have been unprofitable.

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US Unemployment claims are on an upward trend, hitting a 3-year high

Weekly benefit claims indicate a deteriorating labour market. The number of repeat claims rose by 37K in the week ending 14 June (latest data) to 1.974 million, reaching its highest level since November 2021. The plateau in this indicator in mid-April was replaced by an upward trend, adding a total of 141K.

Excluding the volatility during the coronavirus pandemic, the last time such high values were seen was in 2017. Back then, that increase in unemployment did not turn into a recession, and the labour market soon returned to normal.

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Gold once again approaches a cliff edge

The Israel and Iran ceasefire has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The precious metal failed to break out of the medium-term consolidation range of $3,100 to $3,400 per troy ounce and resume its upward trend. This signals weakness among bulls and allows Citigroup to predict a fall in prices below $3,000 in 2026. According to the bank, thanks to Donald Trump's ‘big and beautiful’ tax bill, the acceleration of the US economy will push gold prices down. The decrease in geopolitical risks will also contribute to gold's decline.

Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, maintains its forecast for the precious metal to rise to $4,000. It cites the insatiable appetite of central banks, the weakening dollar, and the fall in US Treasury bond yields. Indeed, the White House is keen on lower debt market rates and a weaker currency. A recent survey by the World Gold Council shows that 43% of central banks plan to increase their bullion purchases over the next 12 months, up from just 29% a year ago.

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What is next: European Inflation and US Jobs

As June turns to July, investors' attention will shift from geopolitics to trade wars. The expiration date of the White House's 90-day tariff delay is approaching. Countries are rushing to conclude trade agreements with the US to limit themselves to a universal tariff of 10%. The European Union is also rushing. However, Brussels is ready to impose retaliatory duties on imports worth $116 billion if negotiations with Washington are unsuccessful.

The escalation of trade wars could restore the direct correlation between the dollar and US stock indices. The greenback is used as a safe-haven currency when the epicentre of turmoil is outside the United States. When the threat comes from the White House, investors prefer to sell American assets such as the S&P 500 and the USD index.

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⚠️ USA — Core PCE Price Index at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.1% | 2.6%

🕒 Exp: 0.1% | 2.6%

🎯 Fact.: 0.2% 📈 | 2.7% 📈

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⚠️ Canada — Gross Domestic Product at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 0.2% | 1.7%

🕒 Exp: 0.0% | 1.3%

🎯 Fact.: -0.1% 📉 | 1.3%

Dow Jones Wave Analysis – 27 June 2025

Dow Jones: ⬆️ Buy

- Dow Jones broke pivotal resistance level 43000.00

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FTSE 100 Wave Analysis – 27 June 2025

FTSE 100: ⬆️ Buy

- FTSE 100 reversed from support level 8700.00

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