Josh Rogin

The Biden administration is racing to complete a set of agreements with Saudi Arabia that U.S. officials claim are a step toward a future three-way deal including Israel that could lead to broader Middle East peace. The deal comes with huge benefits for Saudi Arabia and risky new commitments for the United States. But there’s no chance Israel will agree to the conditions Saudi Arabia has set for normalizing the two countries’ relations — so whatever agreements President Biden makes with Riyadh will likely never get implemented. “No matter the elements of the agreement, it still rests on the premise that you can believe anything MBS says,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), told me. “And I don’t see the evidence of that right now.” Presidential politics may also be at play. Simon Henderson, director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute, told me the administration is trying to come up with a semi-plausible explanation for both its Gaza strategy and broader regional approach. “They are spinning the Gaza disaster in a manner where there might be a positive result out of it, and that positive result might be a headline-friendly gesture between Saudi Arabia and the United States,” he said. “Perhaps they think they can get away with it until after the election, and then after that, things change.” By finalizing these agreements while knowing they won’t achieve the expected result, the administration would be giving up its only leverage over Riyadh to address other U.S. concerns. That’s a high price to pay for a public relations exercise, especially considering the Saudis know they won’t have to deliver on their side of the bargain. The Trump administration was able to move Israel-Arab normalization forward because all parties essentially ignored the Palestinian statehood issue. Since Oct. 7, that’s not possible and, therefore, the conditions for further normalization, unfortunately, no longer exist. Pretending otherwise makes sense for MBS, who is getting the deal of the century, but not for U.S. interests. Read the whole column
@Washingtonpost
: https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/28/biden-saudi-security-deal-charade/… #SaudiArabia #Israel #Gaza #Biden #Blinken #Congress

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29 viewsMay 29 at 17:04

The Biden administration is racing to complete a set of agreements with Saudi Arabia that U.S. officials claim are a step toward a future three-way deal including Israel that could lead to broader Middle East peace. The deal comes with huge benefits for Saudi Arabia and risky new commitments for the United States. But there’s no chance Israel will agree to the conditions Saudi Arabia has set for normalizing the two countries’ relations — so whatever agreements President Biden makes with Riyadh will likely never get implemented. “No matter the elements of the agreement, it still rests on the premise that you can believe anything MBS says,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), told me. “And I don’t see the evidence of that right now.” Presidential politics may also be at play. Simon Henderson, director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute, told me the administration is trying to come up with a semi-plausible explanation for both its Gaza strategy and broader regional approach. “They are spinning the Gaza disaster in a manner where there might be a positive result out of it, and that positive result might be a headline-friendly gesture between Saudi Arabia and the United States,” he said. “Perhaps they think they can get away with it until after the election, and then after that, things change.” By finalizing these agreements while knowing they won’t achieve the expected result, the administration would be giving up its only leverage over Riyadh to address other U.S. concerns. That’s a high price to pay for a public relations exercise, especially considering the Saudis know they won’t have to deliver on their side of the bargain. The Trump administration was able to move Israel-Arab normalization forward because all parties essentially ignored the Palestinian statehood issue. Since Oct. 7, that’s not possible and, therefore, the conditions for further normalization, unfortunately, no longer exist. Pretending otherwise makes sense for MBS, who is getting the deal of the century, but not for U.S. interests. Read the whole column
@Washingtonpost
: https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/28/biden-saudi-security-deal-charade/… #SaudiArabia #Israel #Gaza #Biden #Blinken #Congress

BY Josh Rogin