How did your real estate perform?
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-top-performing-sp-500-stocks-in-the-last-two-decades/
#finance #AmericanDynamism
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-top-performing-sp-500-stocks-in-the-last-two-decades/
#finance #AmericanDynamism
Visual Capitalist
Ranked: The Top Performing S&P 500 Stocks in the Last Two Decades
This infographic ranks the top performing S&P 500 stocks over four different time periods, providing unique historical insight.
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Lately, some commentary has focused on individuals entering the federal government with links to Palantir, Piter Thiel, and PayPal Mafia. The likes of Kash Patel, Elon Musk, David Sacks, JD Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy.
The narrative centers on their libertarian views, ruthless efficiency, and track record. From this foundation, far-fetched speculations are laid for structural changes in how government will operate. Especially around allocations of the DOD budget towards military-industrial incumbents. The case is made for said individuals to champion their alma mater firms for closer integration with government agencies and subsequent applications of "big data" and "big brother" tech. This will soon result in a more efficient government (with fewer employees) and total digital control over all aspects of our lives. First in the USA, then globally. Palantir is spotlighted for the big data analytical capabilities its software played in eliminating violent crimes in El Salvador.
But anyone who knows a thing or two about American history and its political system should expect less drama. To start, this won't be the first time Palantir's alumni entered government roles. The following individuals were there before. It was business as usual.
- Alex Stamos: Former member of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Advisory Committee, was also a member of Palantir's advisory board.
- Trae Stephens: appointed to the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) in 2019.
- Kevin Harrington: served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering at the DOD.
- Michael Kratsios: served as the Chief Technology Officer of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Going further, there is a well-established tradition of inviting the best and the brightest from the private sector into the federal government. Below is a very short list of such individuals in the 20th century:
- Joseph P. Kennedy Sr: Successful stock speculator and investor. The first chairman of a newly established SEC under FDR.
- Robert S. McNamara: President of Ford Motor Company (1960-1961) before becoming Secretary of Defense (1961-1968).
- William E. Simon: A businessman and investment banker who served as Secretary of the Treasury (1974-1977).
- Donald Rumsfeld: Secretary of Defense under Presidents Ford and George W. Bush. Before his government service, Rumsfeld was CEO of G.D. Searle & Company.
- Henry Paulson: Secretary of the Treasury under President George W. Bush. Paulson was chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs before joining the government.
- Robert Rubin: Secretary of the Treasury (1995-1999). Rubin started a career as an attorney, then moved to Goldman Sachs.
Prominent and even controversial, these individuals were not known to advance the interests of their former firms.
Additionally, U.S. law has several provisions to prevent conflicts of interest for executives of private firms entering the federal government. Here are some key regulations:
- Ethics in Government Act
- 18 U.S.C. § 208 (Conflicting Financial Interests)
- Federal Acquisition Regulation
- Procurement Integrity Act
As such
- Musk, as a member of the National Space Council, recused himself from discussions related to SpaceX.
- Thiel, as a member of the President's Transition Team, reportedly sold his Palantir shares to avoid conflicts of interest.
Yes, laws could be broken. "Regulatory capture" is a problem, but government institutions are not headed by school kids either. An up-and-coming district attorney, hungry for political points, will keep players in check. Media, always avid for a scandal, is never too far behind. Ultimately, the executive branch is overseen by Congress. A widely diverse pool of interests won't idly stand by, while some shrewd entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley will attempt to reshape the inner workings of the government.
Incoming department heads deserve the benefit of the doubt, but to expect radical change is to lose touch with reality. Institutional inertia is not a bug, but a feature.
#AmericanDynamism
The narrative centers on their libertarian views, ruthless efficiency, and track record. From this foundation, far-fetched speculations are laid for structural changes in how government will operate. Especially around allocations of the DOD budget towards military-industrial incumbents. The case is made for said individuals to champion their alma mater firms for closer integration with government agencies and subsequent applications of "big data" and "big brother" tech. This will soon result in a more efficient government (with fewer employees) and total digital control over all aspects of our lives. First in the USA, then globally. Palantir is spotlighted for the big data analytical capabilities its software played in eliminating violent crimes in El Salvador.
But anyone who knows a thing or two about American history and its political system should expect less drama. To start, this won't be the first time Palantir's alumni entered government roles. The following individuals were there before. It was business as usual.
- Alex Stamos: Former member of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Advisory Committee, was also a member of Palantir's advisory board.
- Trae Stephens: appointed to the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) in 2019.
- Kevin Harrington: served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering at the DOD.
- Michael Kratsios: served as the Chief Technology Officer of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Going further, there is a well-established tradition of inviting the best and the brightest from the private sector into the federal government. Below is a very short list of such individuals in the 20th century:
- Joseph P. Kennedy Sr: Successful stock speculator and investor. The first chairman of a newly established SEC under FDR.
- Robert S. McNamara: President of Ford Motor Company (1960-1961) before becoming Secretary of Defense (1961-1968).
- William E. Simon: A businessman and investment banker who served as Secretary of the Treasury (1974-1977).
- Donald Rumsfeld: Secretary of Defense under Presidents Ford and George W. Bush. Before his government service, Rumsfeld was CEO of G.D. Searle & Company.
- Henry Paulson: Secretary of the Treasury under President George W. Bush. Paulson was chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs before joining the government.
- Robert Rubin: Secretary of the Treasury (1995-1999). Rubin started a career as an attorney, then moved to Goldman Sachs.
Prominent and even controversial, these individuals were not known to advance the interests of their former firms.
Additionally, U.S. law has several provisions to prevent conflicts of interest for executives of private firms entering the federal government. Here are some key regulations:
- Ethics in Government Act
- 18 U.S.C. § 208 (Conflicting Financial Interests)
- Federal Acquisition Regulation
- Procurement Integrity Act
As such
- Musk, as a member of the National Space Council, recused himself from discussions related to SpaceX.
- Thiel, as a member of the President's Transition Team, reportedly sold his Palantir shares to avoid conflicts of interest.
Yes, laws could be broken. "Regulatory capture" is a problem, but government institutions are not headed by school kids either. An up-and-coming district attorney, hungry for political points, will keep players in check. Media, always avid for a scandal, is never too far behind. Ultimately, the executive branch is overseen by Congress. A widely diverse pool of interests won't idly stand by, while some shrewd entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley will attempt to reshape the inner workings of the government.
Incoming department heads deserve the benefit of the doubt, but to expect radical change is to lose touch with reality. Institutional inertia is not a bug, but a feature.
#AmericanDynamism
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There are 147 million housing units in the U.S., of which 86.6 million are owner-occupied and 34 million (or 40%) of which are mortgage-free. Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have fixed-rate mortgages, and most of those mortgages have rates that were locked in before rates surged from 2021 lows.
https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
#factoftheday #economics
https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
#factoftheday #economics
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Распространённая ошибка в дискуссиях – подмена значимости качественного и количественного аргументов. Человек делает верное качественное утверждение, но количественная составляющая упускается. Без неё тезис зачастую теряет смысл. Поймать такое оппоненту не всегда легко. Требуется знание контекста и натренированная аналитическая мышечная память.
Для примера, типовой аргумент сторонников легитимности Израиля – евреи покупали земли у арабов, и, следовательно, строили государство на своей земле. Так-то оно так, но есть нюанс.
К моменту основания Израиля, в мая 1948, евреи приобрели приблизительно два миллиона дёнюм (dunam, единица измерения площади, 1 дёнюм = 1000 м²) земли в Палестине, что составляло около 6% территории под Британским мандатном. Приобретённые земли были сконцентрированы в прибрежных регионах и долинах. Данная количественная поправка редко озвучивается, но она критически важна для реального понимания ситуации.
За полгода до декларации независимости, план ООН по разделу Палестины (the Partition Plan) предусматривал 56% подмандатных земель для нового государства.
#history
Для примера, типовой аргумент сторонников легитимности Израиля – евреи покупали земли у арабов, и, следовательно, строили государство на своей земле. Так-то оно так, но есть нюанс.
К моменту основания Израиля, в мая 1948, евреи приобрели приблизительно два миллиона дёнюм (dunam, единица измерения площади, 1 дёнюм = 1000 м²) земли в Палестине, что составляло около 6% территории под Британским мандатном. Приобретённые земли были сконцентрированы в прибрежных регионах и долинах. Данная количественная поправка редко озвучивается, но она критически важна для реального понимания ситуации.
За полгода до декларации независимости, план ООН по разделу Палестины (the Partition Plan) предусматривал 56% подмандатных земель для нового государства.
#history
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You can't teach an old dog new tricks.
During 25+ years as a professional software engineer across two dozen teams and projects, the words "bug" and "defect" were used interchangeably and meant the same thing. Lately, our scrum gods have insisted on specific and appropriate usage of these terms. It turns out that "bug" applies to a defect in the UAT environment, while "defect" is a bug in production. Pun intended.
Being a bit curious I googled the subject and one of the results provided the following definitions:
- "A bug is a problem in the software that causes it to behave unexpectedly or incorrectly."
- "A defect is a deviation from the expected behavior or requirement of the software."
Pardon my ignorance, but I can't grok the difference between unexpected behavior and a deviation from the expected one. It sounds like someone needed to elevate their expertise level above coding plebs by generating meaningless content.
Some things ought to remain as is.
#twotypesofpeople
During 25+ years as a professional software engineer across two dozen teams and projects, the words "bug" and "defect" were used interchangeably and meant the same thing. Lately, our scrum gods have insisted on specific and appropriate usage of these terms. It turns out that "bug" applies to a defect in the UAT environment, while "defect" is a bug in production. Pun intended.
Being a bit curious I googled the subject and one of the results provided the following definitions:
- "A bug is a problem in the software that causes it to behave unexpectedly or incorrectly."
- "A defect is a deviation from the expected behavior or requirement of the software."
Pardon my ignorance, but I can't grok the difference between unexpected behavior and a deviation from the expected one. It sounds like someone needed to elevate their expertise level above coding plebs by generating meaningless content.
Some things ought to remain as is.
#twotypesofpeople
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Сегодня Korean Air одна из самым безопасных авиакомпаний в мире. Ресурс airlineratings.com оценивает безопасность перевозчика на 7/7. Данные за Сентябрь 2024. В списке самых надежных по версии Форбс за тот же год, Korean Air на 12ой позиции.
Но так было не всегда.
В конце 1990х Korean Air была одной из самых опасных. Delta Air Lines и Air France отказывались продавать билеты на её рейсы. Пентагон запретил американским военным летать этой компанией. Канада была близка к введению запрета на допуск Korean Air в своё воздушное пространство. В 1999 году, президент Южной Кореи предпочёл Asiana, для визита в США. Его цитата “an embarrassment to the nation" относилась к послужному списку безопасности данной компании.
Как же им удалось, за относительно небольшой срок, радикально улучшить безопасность?
Элегантное и практически бесплатное решение предложили консультанты от Boeing и Delta Air Lines. Обязательный и полный переход на английский в кабине самолёта. Все пилоты на международных рейсах им владеют, дополнительных вложений не требовалось.
Но почему это сработало?
В корейской культуре, подчиненный, обращаясь к руководителю, всегда исходит из позиции уважения и непререкаемости авторитета старшего. Мол, ты начальник, я дурак. К тому же, сам корейский язык имеет довольно витиеватую и анахроничную структуру обращения к уважаемому человеку. Это замедляло общение, а в критических ситуациях важны доли секунды. Как правило, второй пилот, наблюдая ошибки командира или сбои оборудования, не мог настоять на необходимых изменениях. Оценка ситуации капитаном, какой бы ошибочной она не была, принималась за данность. Помощник не мог возражать, и действовал согласно озвученным инструкциям. Это приводило к катастрофам.
Переход на английский заставил пилотов отбросить традиционную мышечную память. Сделал общение более лаконичным и на равных. Не имея тормозов в виде культурных блоков, второй пилот уже свободней влиял на ситуацию. Он мог оспаривать капитанское мнение. В английском это не возбраняется.
Это ещё один пример гипотезы Sapir–Whorf: язык определяет мышление. В более широком смысле эпизод подчёркивает значимость культурных кодов на конечный результат.
#history
January 2025.
Но так было не всегда.
В конце 1990х Korean Air была одной из самых опасных. Delta Air Lines и Air France отказывались продавать билеты на её рейсы. Пентагон запретил американским военным летать этой компанией. Канада была близка к введению запрета на допуск Korean Air в своё воздушное пространство. В 1999 году, президент Южной Кореи предпочёл Asiana, для визита в США. Его цитата “an embarrassment to the nation" относилась к послужному списку безопасности данной компании.
Как же им удалось, за относительно небольшой срок, радикально улучшить безопасность?
Элегантное и практически бесплатное решение предложили консультанты от Boeing и Delta Air Lines. Обязательный и полный переход на английский в кабине самолёта. Все пилоты на международных рейсах им владеют, дополнительных вложений не требовалось.
Но почему это сработало?
В корейской культуре, подчиненный, обращаясь к руководителю, всегда исходит из позиции уважения и непререкаемости авторитета старшего. Мол, ты начальник, я дурак. К тому же, сам корейский язык имеет довольно витиеватую и анахроничную структуру обращения к уважаемому человеку. Это замедляло общение, а в критических ситуациях важны доли секунды. Как правило, второй пилот, наблюдая ошибки командира или сбои оборудования, не мог настоять на необходимых изменениях. Оценка ситуации капитаном, какой бы ошибочной она не была, принималась за данность. Помощник не мог возражать, и действовал согласно озвученным инструкциям. Это приводило к катастрофам.
Переход на английский заставил пилотов отбросить традиционную мышечную память. Сделал общение более лаконичным и на равных. Не имея тормозов в виде культурных блоков, второй пилот уже свободней влиял на ситуацию. Он мог оспаривать капитанское мнение. В английском это не возбраняется.
Это ещё один пример гипотезы Sapir–Whorf: язык определяет мышление. В более широком смысле эпизод подчёркивает значимость культурных кодов на конечный результат.
#history
January 2025.
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On December 21, 1998, AMZN reached a price of $324.8. In about three years, on September 24, 2001, a low of $5.9 was printed. That's a 98% correction. The Dot-com bubble piercing in action. The next time the prior peak was breached was 15 years later, in October 2013. Myriad companies associated with the internet revolution and online retailing didn't survive.
This is the appropriate context to consider when investing in AI companies today.
Happy trading!
#ЖадностьПорождаетБедность #finance
January 2025.
This is the appropriate context to consider when investing in AI companies today.
Happy trading!
#ЖадностьПорождаетБедность #finance
January 2025.
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