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Дал видеоинтервью российскому ресурсу BALTNEWS в связи с резким усилением напряженности в израильско-турецких отношениях.
Today, I gave a video interview to the Russian BALTNEWS e-resource, commenting on the sharp increase of tensions between Israel and Türkiye.
Here are the main points in English:
Although in his recent statement Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not mention an intervention of Turkish troops into Israel, the parallel with Ankara's actions in Karabakh and Libya made many foreign representatives interpret his words as a threat of invasion.
Hence, the tough response of Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz seems logical, predicting for Erdogan the fate of the Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, removed from power as a result of the US military intervention and then executed by an Iraqi court.
Thus, the escalation in relations between Türkiye and Israel should be analyzed through the prism of the following points:
- The escalation takes place amidst the rising tensions across the Middle East, provoked by the Gaza war, the failure of Washington's attempts to reconcile the region on the financial basis, as well as the escalation of the pol-mil confrontation between Iran and Israel.
- In turn, the Israelis also raise the stakes, considering the option of a ground operation in South Lebanon, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant acquiring appropriate powers. The likelihood of such scenario has increased after the July 27 missile attack against the town of Majdal Shams, located in the Israeli-occupied part of the Golan Heights, killing 12 Arab Druze civilians. (Although the Iran-friendly Lebanese Hizbullah disowned it). Earlier, on July 18, the Knesset adopted a declaration recognizing a creation of a Palestinian state as an "existential threat" to Israel.
- Erdogan's harsh statements on Israel address the Turkish audience. They are aimed to strengthen both the popularity of the Turkish leader and the political positions of his Justice and Development Party, questioned by the economic crisis, AKP's defeat at the March 31 municipal elections, and the aggravation of the problem of Syrian refugees.
- Advocating the doctrine of neo-Ottomanism, the Turks keep using the Israeli and Palestinian issues in their diplomatic bargaining with the US, seeking, in particular, a most favorable access to advanced Western technologies.
- The current situation jeopardizes prospects for a settlement of the Palestinian issue in the foreseeable future. The Israeli authorities continue to firmly advocate the "one state" formula, depriving the Palestinians of the right to self-determination.
Experiencing strong pressure from both the Israeli "hawks" and the Arab-hostile population, Netanyahu still ignores the mounting international pressure (even from the UK), inspired by the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.
- The growing mutual influence of conflicts in the Middle East and beyond (not by chance, Erdogan mentioned Karabakh and Libya) hides the risks of a large war in the region with global consequences.
- Future developments largely depend on Tehran. In particular, whether the Iranian leadership maintains the commitment to "strategic patience," i.e. the "proxy confrontation" with Israel using the allied non-state actors in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
- Russia and China cannot neglect the dangerous developments in the Middle East. They have been taking diplomatic steps aimed to de-escalate the Israeli-Palestinian confrontation, following the "two states" formula, mentioned by Vladimir Putin. Thus, in February-March, a meeting of different Palestinian factions was organized in Moscow by the Russian orientalists under the auspices of the Russian MOFA.
The Chinese are also trying to reconcile the Palestinian movements of Fatah and Hamas, baring in mind the successful experience of launching an Iranian-Saudi rapprochement.
BY Инсайты Матвеева / Insights from Matveev
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