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10 августа прокомментировал для популярного ток-шоу "Сасс уполномочен заявить" (с ведущей Надеждой Сасс) на телеканале РТР-Беларусь (запись есть на CTVBY) напряженную обстановку на Ближнем Востоке и возможные сценарии ее развития.
On August 10, I commented with the popular talk show "Sass is Authorized to Declare," presented by Nadezhda Sass at the RTR-Belarus TV channel on the tense situation in the Middle East, as well as its possible developments (a YouTube record is available at the CTVBY).
Хроника комментариев (timing): 29:30-31:32, 33:03-35:47, 43:12-45:27.
Here are the main points in English:
- The situation in the historically conflictogenic Middle East tends to escalate, being characterized by multiple, both regional and extra-regional conflicts with a growing degree of interdependence and mutual influence. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict serves an example, inspiring the current military confrontation between the West and Iran's allied Yemeni Houthis.
- The pol-mil confrontation between Iran and Israel, encompassing the so-called "Shiite Crescent" (Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon) is de-facto a proxy war from the Iranian side. Hence, regretfully, such situation has been hiding real risks of a big war.
- Despite the domestic political orientation of any President of Iran, Tehran's foreign policy priorities remain unchanged. A most important imperative relates to the goal of weakening and lifting the Western, primarily US's sanctions. Which in turn paves a way for Iran's longtime access to advanced technologies, contributing to the strengthening of the country's technological and scientific sovereignty.
- On the contrary, the current Israeli leadership tries to hinder an Iran-West rapprochement, viewed at as a source of new security threats for Israel, resulting from a possible strengthening of the Iranian potential and capacities. Benjamin Netanyahu is especially concerned about the willingness of Joe Biden to conclude a nuclear deal with Tehran in the near future in order to remain in history as a successful US president.
- In the light of the above mentioned, the Israelis continue to take steps hostile to Tehran, pushing Iran to abandon the "strategic patience" and proxy war in favor of an open conflict in which the Americans would join Israel.
- Thus, the foreseeable future doesn't contain prospects for a diplomatic settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Especially, due to the failure of Washington's attempts to "pacify" the Middle East on a monetary and economic basis (i.e. without implementing the "two-state" formula), shown by the war in Gaza.
BY Инсайты Матвеева / Insights from Matveev
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