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14 августа казахстанский интернет-ресурс "Чек-Поинт" опубликовал мой комментарий под заголовком "Ближний Восток нуждается в мире - эксперт", касающийся обстановки в регионе, сценариев ее развития и последствий для государств Центральной Азии.
On August 14, the check-point.kz e-resource in Kazakhstan published my comment "Expert: Middle East Needs Peace," dedicated to the current situation in the region, possible developments, and their impact on the Central Asian states.
Here are the main points in English (Part 1):
Contemporary Middle East remains controversial and multifaced.
On the one hand, the region continues suffering from multiple conflicts. Those include the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, pol-mil confrontation between Iran and Israel, along with the conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen. All of them are highly internationalized, meaning the involvement of regional and non-regional actors.
Such conflictogenicity contains risks of a big war with global consequences. The Gaza war has already provoked chain reactions, such as the exchanges of strikes between Iran and Israel, the assassination of Hamas leaders by Israel, the latter's struggle against the Lebanese Hizbollah with possible IDF's operation in southern Lebanon, the escalation of the warfare between Tehran-friendly Yemeni Houthis and Western powers, and the diplomatic battles between Israel and Türkiye.
All this reflects the failure of the US's attempts to pacify the Middle East on a monetary-economic basis, just ignoring the imperative of finding a fare solution of the Palestinian problem.
Thus, one could hardly predict future scenarios. Here, much will depend on the behavior of Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders, who by their aggressive steps have been sometimes even ignoring Washington, their major ally and patron. It is also important whether Iran remains committed to the "strategic patience," i.e. the "proxy war" with Israel, using the allied Shiite militias in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. Much will also depend on reaching a nuclear deal between Tehran and Washington.
On the other hand, the Middle East hosts several developing centers of sustainable development. Those encompass the GCC states implementing ambitious national economic programs of the 21st century (Saudi Vision 2030, Kuwait 2035, the 4th Industrial Revolution in the UAE, etc.) and Egypt.
The above-mentioned programs require peace, not to mention the existing plans of building global transport and logistics corridors, such as the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative or the alternative India-Middle East-Europe corridor.
That is why the same Saudis and Qataris, despite the tragedy and humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, continue discussing a rapprochement with Israel under the diplomatic support of the US.
Besides, the MENA region has been facing the detente between regional competitors, for example, Saudi Arabia and Iran (mediated by Beijing), as well as the restoration of Syria's full membership in the Arab League and visible prospects for Ankara-Damascus rapprochement promoted by Moscow.
BY Инсайты Матвеева / Insights from Matveev
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