Инсайты Матвеева / Insights from Matveev

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Вторая часть моего комментария для казахстанского ресурса "Чек-Поинт".

Here is Part 2 of my comments with the Kazakstani check-point.kz e-resource:

The ideologically-fed pol-mil confrontation between Iran and Israel has been in place since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979.

Historically, the Israelis have been trying to ensure their national security at the expense of the neighbor Arab states by annexing Palestinian, Jordanian, and Syrian lands by force (incl. most of the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem).

In turn, Iran recognizes the Jewish state as a Zionist entity, called "Big Satan." Hence, the Iranians keep exerting pressure on Israel, using the "axis of resilience," which runs from Iran to the Lebanese-Israeli border via Iraq and Syria, avoiding a much more costly open conflict with Israel.

Despite the escalation in the Middle East, there are real prospects for reaching an agreement between Tehran and Washington on the Iranian nuclear program. It is supported by Joe Biden, trying to remain in history as a successful, not a failed president.

Meanwhile, some of Western experts and policymakers quite rationally believe that the newly-elected Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian, who belongs to the reformist camp could facilitate an Iran-West détente, enjoying the relevant permission from the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei. Which eventually enables Tehran to get a longtime access to advanced technologies.

On the contrary, many Israeli politicians and military, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, do fear that a détente between Iran and the US will eventually make Iran stronger economically and militarily, thus, enabling Tehran to launch a large-scale attack on the Jewish state.

Thus, Israel tries to hinder the process of détente between Iran and the US, irritating the Iranians by hostile steps, such as the April 1 strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus or the recent assassination of the Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. In other words, the Israelis have been forcing the Iranians to take harsh retaliatory steps, hoping that Washington attacks Iran in solidarity with Israel, burying the US-Iran reconciliation plans.

So far, the Iranians remain committed to the "strategic patience" doctrine, limiting themselves to "ordinary actions of retaliation," mainly through their proxies. Massive (and largely symbolic) April 13-14 use of missiles and drones against Israel was an exception.

However, one should always keep in mind that big wars (like World War I) sometimes begin due to the casus belli, formed by local incidents.

www.tgoop.com/Remarks_of_Orientalist/1624

536 viewsIgor Matveev, Aug 16 at 04:22

👆 👆 👆 👆 👆
Вторая часть моего комментария для казахстанского ресурса "Чек-Поинт".

Here is Part 2 of my comments with the Kazakstani check-point.kz e-resource:

The ideologically-fed pol-mil confrontation between Iran and Israel has been in place since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979.

Historically, the Israelis have been trying to ensure their national security at the expense of the neighbor Arab states by annexing Palestinian, Jordanian, and Syrian lands by force (incl. most of the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem).

In turn, Iran recognizes the Jewish state as a Zionist entity, called "Big Satan." Hence, the Iranians keep exerting pressure on Israel, using the "axis of resilience," which runs from Iran to the Lebanese-Israeli border via Iraq and Syria, avoiding a much more costly open conflict with Israel.

Despite the escalation in the Middle East, there are real prospects for reaching an agreement between Tehran and Washington on the Iranian nuclear program. It is supported by Joe Biden, trying to remain in history as a successful, not a failed president.

Meanwhile, some of Western experts and policymakers quite rationally believe that the newly-elected Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian, who belongs to the reformist camp could facilitate an Iran-West détente, enjoying the relevant permission from the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei. Which eventually enables Tehran to get a longtime access to advanced technologies.

On the contrary, many Israeli politicians and military, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, do fear that a détente between Iran and the US will eventually make Iran stronger economically and militarily, thus, enabling Tehran to launch a large-scale attack on the Jewish state.

Thus, Israel tries to hinder the process of détente between Iran and the US, irritating the Iranians by hostile steps, such as the April 1 strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus or the recent assassination of the Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. In other words, the Israelis have been forcing the Iranians to take harsh retaliatory steps, hoping that Washington attacks Iran in solidarity with Israel, burying the US-Iran reconciliation plans.

So far, the Iranians remain committed to the "strategic patience" doctrine, limiting themselves to "ordinary actions of retaliation," mainly through their proxies. Massive (and largely symbolic) April 13-14 use of missiles and drones against Israel was an exception.

However, one should always keep in mind that big wars (like World War I) sometimes begin due to the casus belli, formed by local incidents.

BY Инсайты Матвеева / Insights from Matveev