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Вчера Российский совет по международным делам опубликовал мою статью "Сирия — Турция: нормализация vs конфронтация", которая посвящена перспективам примирения Анкары и Дамаска при дипломатическом содействии Москвы.
Yesterday, the Russian International Affairs Council published my article "Syria - Türkiye: Normalization vs. Confrontation." It highlights the perspectives of rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus under Moscow's diplomatic mediation.
С текстом статьи можно ознакомиться на сайте и в Телеграм канале РСМД. The text is available in Russian at both the RIAC's website and Telegram channel.
Here is the brief in English.
Recently, there have been numerous public statements by the leaders of Syria and Türkiye about their readiness to restore the relations between both countries.
Regretfully, those statements coincided with the sharp rise of anti-Syrian sentiments in Türkiye, encompassing the areas adjacent to the Syrian-Turkish border, and not only. It was provoked by an incident which happened on June 30, in the city of Kayseri in Türkiye, whereas a Syrian migrant was arrested on charges of raping a child.
Nevertheless, the Turkish leadership and personally President Erdogan have been advocating the rapprochement, admitting the existence of common interests in deterring the Syrian Kurds, together with the need to pacify so-called "Small Idlib" in Syria, still controlled by the terrorists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (banned in Russia).
Both Turkish and Syrian business communities are interested in restoring bilateral trade and economic ties. Here, the Turks bear in mind future competitions with the Arab rivalries (Saudi Arabia, the UAE) in the future rebuilding of Syria.
Official Damascus is also ready for the rapprochement, remembering the 2000s positive experience of developing bilateral economic cooperation. In pol-mil terms, the Syrian leadership is interested in the full return of Idlib, avoiding a costly military scenario.
Besides, the Syrian authorities could be interested in weakening the Kurdish self-proclaimed "Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria" by the use of a tactical alliance with Ankara.
Those stances seem to be spoiled by the "Kayseri incident" and the subsequent escalation, allegedly supported by the Turkish proxies in northern Syria, as well as the radicals in "Small Idlib," threatened by the perspective of the return of those territories under Damascus's control.
Yet, the perspectives for Syria-Türkiye rapprochement still exist.
BY Инсайты Матвеева / Insights from Matveev
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