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В связи с начавшимся рейдом ЦАХАЛ на Западный берег прокомментировал ситуацию и возможные сценарии ее развития для Андрея Пономаря в программе "СоловьёвLIFE".
Commenting on the ongoing IDF raid on the West Bank, I expressed some ideas, related the situation and its possible developments for Andrei Ponomar ("SolovyovLIFE" program).
Хронология комментариев (timing): 1:37:52-1:56:11
1:57:45-1:58:11.
Here are the main points in English.
1. The MENA macro-region remains rather controversial, facing both escalations and tendencies of sustainable development.
2. The US and personally Joe Biden are interested in a rapprochement with Iran, reaching an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program.
3. Besides, the Biden administration would like to avoid a scenario with Iran still supporting Hamas militarily and jeopardizing the possibilities of pacifying the Middle East on the monetary basis.
4. For Tehran, a real normalization with Washington could pave a way for the future lifting of sanctions. Thus, Iran will require a sustainable access to Western advanced techs, nullifying the negative economic consequences of the sanctions.
5. In contrast, the Israelis are not interested in an US-Iran rapprochement, which in their view could lead to the entrancement of Iran's military strength and capabilities. To avoid such scenario, they have been irritating Iran by plainly hostile actions.
6. Hence, despite the will of many regional and non-regional actors to avoid a big war nightmare, real risks still exist. Moreover, they could be multiplied by both the current Israeli operation in the West Bank and a highly probable ground operation of the IDF in South Lebanon.
BY Инсайты Матвеева / Insights from Matveev
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