China saw only 6.1M marriages last year. In a country where less than 9% of births are out of wedlock this spells absolute disaster ahead unless some incredible cultural turnaround takes almost immediate effect. 2025 births predicted at 7.3M w/TFR of 0.90.

Chinese marriages have already plummeted by half from 13.47 million couples in 2013 to 6.11 million in 2024. Consequently China’s fertility rate in 2025 is expected to fall to 0.9 births per woman which is just half of what Chinese officials predicted in 2016.

61% of Chinese babies are born to women between the age of 20 to 30. But the number of women in this cohort dropped from 111M in 2012 to 73M in 2024, and is expected to decline to only 37 million by 2050. Even if the fertility rate were to rise, births would continue to fall.

Imagine, just 7,300,000 Chinese births in 2025. That would be around 5% of global births in a country with almost 20% of the world’s population. demographics may hinder China’s opportunity to make this their century.

https://t.co/okGeuyJRhz

These projections don’t take plummeting TFR in South America into account. If Argentina,Colombia,Chile,Uruguay, & Ecuador stay on their current trajectory then this estimate is far too high. North America also does not take Mexico’s cratering TFR into account. Africa also on the high side as their TFR is falling fast particularly in the cities.

The city of Gijón, Asturias (population ~271,000) is already working on an East Asian population pyramid (spinning top). While in general almost all of Europe is in better shape than East Asia demographically there are quite a few areas like Gijón across the EU.

The population pyramid of Nanmoku looks like an apparition from a horror movie. When you get to a population pyramid like that it is well and truly over.

Emiratis in the UAE are only 1,200,000 strong. That is smaller than the population of Estonia. Yet they post a very respectable 30,900 annual births for that citizen population. By contrast non citizens have ultra-low TFR, a population of 9,000,000 plus & only 65,700 births.

TFR of Heilongjiang & Shanghai almost defy belief. Having a TFR of 0.53-0.65 must reinforce the belief of many that there is no TFR floor. Personally do not hold that belief. Each society has a TFR floor. That floor is probably higher in Europe than East Asia & higher in US than Europe.

Unreal, Colombia’s Bogota Department (the national capital) has East Asian fertility rate of just 0.90! Antioquia (huge Department of 7 million people) has the same TFR as Spain or Poland. The only Department with good TFR (La Guajira) has sub 1M people & is 45% indigenous.

Emigration greatly exacerbating demographic crisis in Italy. Last year 191,000 Italians relocated abroad.  That’s on top of a natural decline of 280,655.  Meloni’s natalist measures (longer parental leave+tax breaks for mothers with 2+ children) not working.

https://t.co/ySKjh04yz7

The demographic crisis is global & dramatic. It will impact almost everything. Births rates have plummeted from Bangladesh to Brazil, Peru to Poland, Spain to Saudi Arabia. AI may dulls the blow but cannot carry a civilization or culture forward, you need young people for that.

Things have demographically gotten much worse since 2021 for many of the countries on this chart. If these trends hold the pensions crises and other aging related issues will be at policymakers doorsteps much faster than they thought.

🇲🇳👶Even Mongolia seeing a huge crash in births over the past half decade…

Significant improvement in Spanish births in March 2025 but that does not point to an improving trend. As you can see from the chart from INE, births have improved in March after falling in February in Spain every year. Births then fall again in April. Every time.

The US boomer population is much bigger than just those born from 1946-1964(which was already massive). ⬆️ 10M immigrants who arrived mainly from 1966-1992 also significantly pad the ranks of the soon to be/current pensioners. Retirement wave is huge with many opportunities.

The baby boomer generation started shaping the U.S. as early as the late 1960s (when their earliest members were in their early to mid 20s) & continued to be the dominant force until today. This economic, political, & cultural dominance will largely transition to millennials.

The largest five year cohort of Gen X was born from 1965-1970. They largely share baby boomer political & cultural sentiment. More distinct Gen Xers born from 1971-1980 are so much smaller in number than millennials born from 1981-1991 that they will be quickly overshadowed.

From 1971-1980 births averaged around 3,300,000 compared to around 3,800,000 from 1981-1990. The surge in immigration during the GW Bush Administration in the 2000s also padded millennial ranks.

While 2025 got off to a good start in South Korea with a massive surge in births and a fertility rate of 0.88 for January things began to regress closer to the norm in March.  Births were 2,000 lower than January & the fertility rate fell back to 0.77.

Iran's population growth rate is expected to reach zero by 2041. Births have fallen a massive 31% since 2016. Iranian authorities have responded to the crisis by offering marriage loans & housing deposits for families with 3 children, to little effect.

https://www.intellinews.com/iran-s-birth-rate-falls-below-1mn-as-population-crisis-deepens-366755/

Still better than March 2024 so a year on year improvement.

Russia has a large comeback cohort born from 2008-2016 (with births btwn 1,713,947 & 1,942,683 every year of cohort). Its eldest turn 18 next year. While this group is clearly vital for Russia’s demographic recovery they are obviously viewed as a vital military asset as well.

Even if the war in Ukraine ends before 2026 Russia will undoubtedly want to maintain a large standing army as this is now central to its national interests. They are demographically able to do so until well into 2040s unlike much of Europe w/minuscule Zoomer & Alpha generations.

In comparison,Germany has a small Zoomer generation,as does Poland, Italy, Spain etc. Yet another example of how demographics directly impact national security. Putin invested heavily to create the 2008-2016 boom which led to TFR climbing as high as 1.77 for partly this reason.

Ukraine saw two good years towards the tail end of Gen Z(2009 & 2012)but a substantial part of this cohort had to flee abroad to escape fighting in 2022. If they don’t return(& gradually assimilate)the future of Ukraine is obviously very much at risk (culturally & otherwise).