Demographic decline has profound consequences. Italian fertility rates went below replacement in 1977, then fell below 1.5 in 1984, then 1.19 in 1995. Currently 1.18 & below 1.5 for more than 40 years!

Baby boomer empty nesters own twice as many of the 3+ bedroom homes in the US as millennials with kids. That’s not helping the demographic situation.  Baby boomers argue they will lose out financially if they downsize their home due to 6+% mortgage rates.

That being said homes are FAR from the determining factor on TFR but they are one of a host of factors that move people away from larger families. Culture is of course the determinant factor but the housing situation certainly can make things even worse.

https://t.co/t2lylQVyHK

Growing fear that coming economic crisis could drive US TFR below 1.5 as early as 2026/2027. Don’t think that is likely to happen(probably a 30% chance)as of yet but it is now definitely a possibility.   Have heard this not just in news but from work colleagues irl with 1-2 kids.

Polish births are down more than 10% in the first month of 2025. If this keeps up Polish TFR will fall to just 1.0 this year. That is lower than China or Japan. The rapidity of this decline has truly been stunning.

https://stat.gov.pl/en/topics/other-studies/informations-on-socio-economic-situation/statistical-bulletin-no-22025,4,172.html

The University of Illinois Chicago used population projections to conclude that by 2100 the populations of some 15,000 US cities could dwindle to become “ghost towns” which they argue is a 12-23% decline. Already many cities fit this bill 1950-2020.

When you look at cities and towns in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, etc this is hardly dramatic news. Many cities and towns in the rust belt peaked in the 1940s or 1950s & have lost significant population since then. The rest of the U.S. will simply follow that trajectory.

Cities & towns in Texas, Florida, Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, Nevada etc will still see population increases while most of the rest of the country (especially Illinois, Wisconsin, California, New Jersey (outside of Hasidic areas obviously), NY (ibid), sees decline.

https://t.co/cidY5yWKv1

This should be a warning to all oil exporting countries. Chinese gasoline demand likely to fall sharply in the 2030s both due to EV adoption & major demographic shifts(& India won’t replace it). These countries need to diversify smart Norwegian way not foolish Saudi Arabian way.

The years ahead will be those of dramatic change. Think it’s unlikely US tariffs will reduce Chinese dominance in the EV field. If anything EU reducing tariffs on Chinese EVs (or eliminating them altogether)will hyper-charge them & may destroy Tesla market share in EU further.

Chinese EV makers know that they need to look to foreign markets. Even though the EU has major demographic problems too they are still a market looking to fully transition from ICE vehicles to EVs by the 2030s-2040s. Chinese EV firms will also look to the rest of Asia.

BUT Chinese EV markers need to capture most of EU, other Asian, & part of developing world market by 2030s & 2040s just to make up for falling domestic demand due to horrible domestic demographic situation which will eventually reduce the number of customers by tens of millions.

India’s population to top out at absolutely massive 1 billion 600 million+ people. That is ~200 million more people than China had at its peak. This is impressive as China is also more than twice as large as India in terms of area. India’s population 2050>all Africa today.

This 1.6 billion population estimate also accounts for India’s falling fertility rate. Population momentum will get them there. India to likely have population bigger than the European Union, United States, Japan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, Thailand, & South Korea combined.

Germany headed for huge retirement wave from 2025-2035. It is occurring at the same time Germany’s fertility rate takes a turn for the worst (falling towards 1.3) & is struggling to attract skilled immigrants from Eastern and Southern Europe.

This chart clearly shows how large the coming German retirement wave will be. Would not be surprised if German companies attempt to recruit graduates from American Universities by 2030. Germany buffeted by a triple crisis. Demographic, economic, and in the energy sector.

Taiwan getting much worse by the month this year. During the first two months of 2025 births were down 3.8%. For January-March 2025 births are down 7%. Very bad trajectory for a country with a TFR in 2024 below 0.90.

https://www.stat.gov.tw/Statistics.aspx?n=2961&CaN=363

The largest declines in US mothers with completed fertility between 1980-2022 with 4+ children occurred in the Black community.  In 1980 54% of Black women aged 40-44 had 4+ children by 2022 this crumbled to 12%.  For Whites # of children per woman aged 40-44 plummeted from 30% to 9% while Hispanic women saw fall from 42% to 18%.

Indonesia likely significantly below replacement. Most populous island of Java with the capital Jakarta & other huge cities likely falling fast while less developed regions & Christian areas like Papua & East Nusa Tenggara still well above replacement. Christian population to rise substantially.

Indonesia like the Philippines is seeing its numbers of births falling very fast. However,as with the Philippines, they have a large three decade window to demographically get back to replacement. But if experience of almost all other counties is any guide odds are against this.

This graph shows that the cultural shift away from big families became a major phenomenon from the oldest baby boomers (born 1946-1950 who were in the 40-44 age around 1986-1994) onward with 3 & 4+ child families making the smallest of comebacks amongst Gen X and Millennial parents.

Impressive how Vietnamese TFR has held up so strongly in Vietnam (~1.90) while crashing to East Asian levels amongst Vietnamese in most of the diaspora (US, South Korea, Canada, Japan, Finland etc).

Only two provinces in Argentine left with fairly decent fertility. Formosa (1.71 TFR with a small population of ~600,000) that is rural with an agriculture based economy & poor, & Misiones (1.82 TFR with a population of 1.2M) that is also poorer than national average, & has a higher indigenous population share.

Unlike in the United States (where Native Americans have very low TFR) Native Americans in most of South America still have higher fertility rates than average while Black, Mestizo, & White fertility rates have plummeted far below replacement in general.

Montréal has East Asian level fertility rate.