Jamaica is demographically doomed. Very very hard to see a rebound in time. Likely sub 2M before 2060. It is an emigration nation, has tanking TFR (like almost all of the Caribbean), crime a problem, & there is basically nothing being done to turn things around on the island.

Thailand seems to be following the lower 80% prediction interval on births at present.  Births in 2024 on track to be sub 500,000.  If this track continues expect births to fall below 400,000 by 2040. Will have knock on effects on neighbors as many immigrate to Thailand from Burma/Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos etc.

Really like this map showing biggest 5 year generational cohorts in each country (even though it made some mistakes with China & a few other places). It shows what is economically in store for us in coming years. Europe burns out first, then East Asia, then Brazil, US+India.

The 2030s will be the decade where several major European & East Asian economies see 20% or more of their population being age 70 and above. In 2030 Italy hits this milestone, in 2033 Germany, 2034 South Korea & Spain, & in 2035 France & Taiwan. Over 90% of 70+ retired.

The age 60 plus voting bloc will be a clear majority of the electorate in most of these countries. Will be hard to have natalism, a push for new infrastructure, a push for more defense spending, & pension & healthcare remain untouched all at the same time.

Unlike the U.S. and Australia Europe and East Asia do not have a large Generation Z. That is their downfall. They will put more and more of a tax burden on a smaller and smaller population. This is not sustainable. Lots for other countries to learn from this.

In Australia East Asian TFR is almost as low as in sending countries (and in many cases even lower). Australian Koreans on 0.86 vs 0.73 in South Korea. Australian Taiwanese on 0.71 vs 0.85 in Taiwan. Australian Chinese on 0.85 vs 1.0 in the PRC.

The population of the entire African Continent will never break 3 billion. Even completely excluding the Sahara and other deserts it is much bigger than India, China, Japan, Germany, & the UK combined (total population of just those areas is more than 3 billion today).

Global population will eventually stabilize or decline almost everywhere (only around half dozen smaller countries are projected to have replacement TFR by 2050). Virtually all data is pointing in that direction.

🇹🇭👶 462,240. That’s the number of Thai births in 2024. To put this into perspective Thailand saw 1,221,228 births in 1971, so nearly three times last years number. Thailand demographically pulling a Taiwan or Korea when it is far less economically developed, this will become common for most developing countries from Sri Lanka to Costa Rica to the Philippines to Colombia.

Would not be surprised if difference in religiosity between Korean Americans & South Koreans is a major factor in explaining the much higher Korean American than South Korean fertility rate. Less stressful work culture in the United States also a probable contributing factor.