Let’s take an urgent look at Colombia. Why? Because it looks like the UN has significantly overestimated their TFR. In 2022 they estimated it at almost 1.7 when it was just 1.38 according to Colombian data. Very plausible Colombia’s population on track to be sub 30M by 2100.
Furthermore, Colombia is very likely to be an aged country by 2050 when more than 20% of its population is age 65 & better. Hard to see Colombia continuing to develop & modernize as it loses young people and ages dramatically.
What’s worse is Colombia is still sending hundreds of thousands of their young abroad as emigrants annually (many permanently). The Colombian economy must grow to the point that wages are at least 55% of those of similar jobs in the U.S. and EU. Lots of work to be done.
Furthermore, Colombia is very likely to be an aged country by 2050 when more than 20% of its population is age 65 & better. Hard to see Colombia continuing to develop & modernize as it loses young people and ages dramatically.
What’s worse is Colombia is still sending hundreds of thousands of their young abroad as emigrants annually (many permanently). The Colombian economy must grow to the point that wages are at least 55% of those of similar jobs in the U.S. and EU. Lots of work to be done.
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🇰🇪Wanted to do a quick post on Kenyan demographic predictions. Kenya’s TFR may hit replacement as early as 2035 & UN forecasts have long overstated Kenya’s eventual population. It won’t ever reach 100M. In fact, Kenya will probably top out at ~80M & fall to below 70M by 2100.
Kenyan TFR is already just 3.21. Extremely low for a country at their stage of economic development. By 2030 it will likely be 2.5. By 2035 2.1.
Kenyan TFR is already just 3.21. Extremely low for a country at their stage of economic development. By 2030 it will likely be 2.5. By 2035 2.1.
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The transformation of South Korean Society is extreme and will only become more so. in 1970 the number of children age 0 to 14 was ~14 million. Today it is less than 5.5 million. By 2072 there will be less than 2.5 million children age 0 to 14.
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South Korea is going to get dramatically older very rapidly. Today the population of South Koreans age 65 and better is approximately 10 million (~20% of the Korean population). By 2050 it will be nearly double at just under 19 million, or around 40% of the total population.
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The demographic situation from Argentina to Brazil to Colombia to Chile to Ecuador to Peru to Uruguay is shockingly suboptimal. The impact on the global economy in the decades to come is going to be absolutely colossal.
Simply don’t believe there is an AI or immigration solution for all these countries. There will be no conceivable way to fix the shortfall in the labor force absent a revival in the birth rate. Such a revival really is the only way.
Simply don’t believe there is an AI or immigration solution for all these countries. There will be no conceivable way to fix the shortfall in the labor force absent a revival in the birth rate. Such a revival really is the only way.
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Chile is an ultra-low fertility outlier (likely to be below 1.0 TFR in 2024). According to INE: 60% of the population identifies as Christian (45% Catholic+15% Protestant) & only ~20% of Chileans live in apartments with many others living in houses or other more spacious than apartment dwellings.
Like Hungary & Poland what is likely at play here is a huge generational gap in values & beliefs. Chileans aged 45 plus likely very religious while those 30 & below likely much less so. Also younger Chileans may be more likely to live in urban areas.
But what is surprising is that there appears to be no very high fertility Catholic or Protestant outliers amongst the young. One would think at least 10-20% of women age 40 and below would have high TFR.
Like Hungary & Poland what is likely at play here is a huge generational gap in values & beliefs. Chileans aged 45 plus likely very religious while those 30 & below likely much less so. Also younger Chileans may be more likely to live in urban areas.
But what is surprising is that there appears to be no very high fertility Catholic or Protestant outliers amongst the young. One would think at least 10-20% of women age 40 and below would have high TFR.
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The Philippines is incredibly significant (with a population above 100 million & huge emigration). Government of the Philippines must create more conducive environment to get their people to stay immediately. With sub 1.5 TFR and high emigration population decline by 2050 certain.
https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1862887661897179600
With this latest information, it seems that the Philippines may follow just north of the lower 80% prediction interval track,with population peaking between 120-130 million by 2050 then falling well below 100 million by 2100. Filipino sailors may become a scarce labor commodity.
https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1862887661897179600
With this latest information, it seems that the Philippines may follow just north of the lower 80% prediction interval track,with population peaking between 120-130 million by 2050 then falling well below 100 million by 2100. Filipino sailors may become a scarce labor commodity.
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🇨🇳 According to the United Nations in a BEST case scenario, China’s population falls 400,000,000+ by 2100. Worst case scenario it falls by 1 billion. Absolutely colossal economic changes inbound. Natural resource exporting countries need to diversify as quickly as they can.
Chinese energy, other natural resource, & import needs will fall sharply in the 2040s & 2050s. China’s population has already peaked & is in both natural & absolute decline. By 2030s natural decline will increase to up to 6 million annually. By 2040s up to 10 million annually.
Chinese energy, other natural resource, & import needs will fall sharply in the 2040s & 2050s. China’s population has already peaked & is in both natural & absolute decline. By 2030s natural decline will increase to up to 6 million annually. By 2040s up to 10 million annually.
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From 2030 Poland, Romania, Hungary, Czechia will age rapidly with all becoming very aged societies by 2040 & continuing to age quickly until ~2060 before leveling off presenting huge challenges to countries like Germany, that rely on their relatively affordable & skilled labor.
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The profound drops in working age populations in China, Italy, Japan, Russia, Germany, & Spain may very well cause a global fiscal crisis. Unlikely a top heavy population will vote for cuts to their pensions & other benefits. Of developed world U.S. and Australia in best shape.
The fertility rate of the United States has never sunk below 1.6. That is higher than almost any fertility rate in Europe or East Asia besides France & much countries like Bulgaria & Montenegro.
The fertility rate of the United States has never sunk below 1.6. That is higher than almost any fertility rate in Europe or East Asia besides France & much countries like Bulgaria & Montenegro.
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