FORWARDLIKEHELL Telegram 2882
小破不入渠🌏
今年一次次听到体制内朋友确认单位在「降薪涨社保」,因此意识到,很多人想象中的刺激经济是发钱,但国内实际一直在创造制度性的通缩。 即便在统计口径上存在诸多争议,但一个不难做出的定性判断是:人民币的流通非常弱,远弱于美元。 这个 M1/M0 之间的巨大鸿沟,一大成因在于中国的企业端资金是借贷而非投资主导,另一大因素则在于居民端,社保、医疗,甚至住房的多轨制。 我很早就发现,出身于体制内家庭的中学同学,之后无论学历高低,在哪个城市,大多选择了体制内就业,大学同学则相反。这个比例已经不能用简单的「多和少」来…
刚刚看到这个回答,蛮典型的。

其实就是同一问题,中产没有确定性,即便高薪就业,也靠超高的储蓄率来获得安全感,最终的结局全部流向地产,而地产因为流动性的问题,即便升值也无法生息,永远无法完成现金流的再生产,故最终造成了制度性的通缩。而消费的涓滴效应无比羸弱,各行各业都更难赚到钱,特别是中产阶级,在消费市场里没有起到任何带动作用,c 端产业的 growth hack 全都是利用底层的人性,进行反向的产业降级,从抖音到拼多多,进而导致职业稳定性更加不足,就是市场的恶性循环。

https://www.zhihu.com/question/648499356/answer/3582221912



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刚刚看到这个回答,蛮典型的。

其实就是同一问题,中产没有确定性,即便高薪就业,也靠超高的储蓄率来获得安全感,最终的结局全部流向地产,而地产因为流动性的问题,即便升值也无法生息,永远无法完成现金流的再生产,故最终造成了制度性的通缩。而消费的涓滴效应无比羸弱,各行各业都更难赚到钱,特别是中产阶级,在消费市场里没有起到任何带动作用,c 端产业的 growth hack 全都是利用底层的人性,进行反向的产业降级,从抖音到拼多多,进而导致职业稳定性更加不足,就是市场的恶性循环。

https://www.zhihu.com/question/648499356/answer/3582221912

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