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理性之道、Less Wrong,群星和别的什么
Part A, 成为负担的细节(Burdensome Details) 未来学家?实际上,句子每加上一个 "and",它的概率就要重新计算。 然而,越“逼真”的句子越使人确信 “人类文明将在百年内毁灭” “人类文明将在百年内毁灭,地球生物圈将重新洗牌” 多出来的细节使得句子的发生概率下降(但人们常常不这么想),这就是合取谬误(Conjunction fallcy)。 If you can lighten your burden you must do so.
本章还提出在无法精确计算概率的情况下也要估计概率的建议:

总统支持保护单身母亲,也支持削弱本地政府的权利。

根据你拥有的信息,你预估总统一定会支持保护单身母亲,那么可能性记为
你不确定总统是否会支持削弱本地政府,所以你觉得可能性应该记为 0.8

那么这句句子的可能性为
P(A)*P(B) = 1*0.8 = 80%

现实世界有很多事情不能精确计算概率,请用工具武装自己,接近真相



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本章还提出在无法精确计算概率的情况下也要估计概率的建议:

总统支持保护单身母亲,也支持削弱本地政府的权利。

根据你拥有的信息,你预估总统一定会支持保护单身母亲,那么可能性记为
你不确定总统是否会支持削弱本地政府,所以你觉得可能性应该记为 0.8

那么这句句子的可能性为
P(A)*P(B) = 1*0.8 = 80%

现实世界有很多事情不能精确计算概率,请用工具武装自己,接近真相

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Ng, who had pleaded not guilty to all charges, had been detained for more than 20 months. His channel was said to have contained around 120 messages and photos that incited others to vandalise pro-government shops and commit criminal damage targeting police stations. Don’t publish new content at nighttime. Since not all users disable notifications for the night, you risk inadvertently disturbing them. It’s yet another bloodbath on Satoshi Street. As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market have corrected another 10 percent amid a massive sell-off. Ethereum (EHT) is down a staggering 15 percent moving close to $1,000, down more than 42 percent on the weekly chart. Although some crypto traders have moved toward screaming as a coping mechanism, several mental health experts call this therapy a pseudoscience. The crypto community finds its way to engage in one or the other way and share its feelings with other fellow members.
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