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​​Nuclear simulation in Kursk region

The nuclear argument remains one of the decisive ones in terms of a possible shift in the course of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine. Moscow is actively pursuing its nuclear blackmail, as evidenced by their initiatives to amend the nuclear doctrine, which they seek to supplement with vague provisions on allowing the use of a nuclear arsenal in the event of a valid threat not only to the country’s very existence but also to its sovereignty. Putin's fear of Ukraine receiving permission from Western allies to fire theirlong-range weapons deep into Russia has been exposed.
Therefore Russia bets on nuclear blackmail that the Kremlin exploits in an attempt to compensate for failures and gaps in running a conventional war. Although due to Western restrictions on deep strikes into Russia the invasion force maintains overwhelming air supremacy overDonbas, including by massively deploying glide bombs, even fairly major gains, such as the capture of Vuhledar after 25 months of assault efforts, cause no uplift among the military and even ordinary Russians. Russia has reached an impasse in its war of aggression because Putin tries to ignore battlefield developments, while trying to inspire the public with dubious personnel reshuffles (such as the appointment of the "DPR hero” Zhoga to a position in the Urals). And this is long-term harsh reality for the aggressor state.

For now, Russia retains a dual approach to waging war: applyingscorched earth tactics along the entire front line, especially in the long-suffering Donbas, and orchestrating near-nuclear acts of provocation. Without regard for the mounting casualty toll, the Russian command pursues “meat assaults”, throwing infantry into the grinder, and razing populaces to the ground, the Russian steamroller is advancing westward in the framework of a positional warfare resembling the Battle of the Somme.

The Kursk NPP, located 30 km from the front line and quite vulnerable to attacks due unsecured reactors, is now in the main focus. The Russian command decided to use this moment to try to hold back the Ukrainian forces in a bid to turn weakness into strength.

On October 3, reports emerged claiming a Ukrainian “attack on the Kursk NPP”. A fire broke out in the town of Kurchatov that hosts the plant, but its exact cause of the blaze has become asubject of speculation by Russian propaganda. Although the videos posted across social media show an active fire in an unidentified building with no context provided as to the cause of the blaze, the Russians immediately put the blame on Ukraine.

Although the alleged incident occurred quite far from the NPP, it is being inflated in the media space into almost an attempt by Kyiv to set up another “Chornobyl disaster” at the Kursk NPP. Even Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear operator, came out with a statement, assuring the public that the plant operates with no interruptions.

Meanwhile, it is clear that for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an attack on the Kursk NPP would not be expedient military-wise. But for the Kremlin, simulating a “nuclear” incident is quitebeneficial as this could potentially affect Ukraine’s internationalimage, including in the eyes of arms suppliers.

The Russian side seems to be following its guidebook bymanipulating the statement by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi of August 27, in which he pointed out the risks of a nuclear incident in Kurchatov in the event of an “external” impact on NPP reactors. But here it must be recalled once again that it is Russia that is recognized as the aggressor state at the UN level as the only country that has occupied two nuclear power plants at once. Whilethe irradiated invaders fled from Chornobyl rather quickly, Europe’s largest Zaporizhzhia NPP, located in close proximity to the combat zone, remains occupied to this day. And that’s not to mention the fact that Russian missiles and drones regularly fly over other Ukrainian NPPs, whose infrastructure Russian terrorists perceive as targets.

www.tgoop.com/sytosokrata/936

48.3K viewsedited  Oct 5 at 06:06

​​Nuclear simulation in Kursk region

The nuclear argument remains one of the decisive ones in terms of a possible shift in the course of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine. Moscow is actively pursuing its nuclear blackmail, as evidenced by their initiatives to amend the nuclear doctrine, which they seek to supplement with vague provisions on allowing the use of a nuclear arsenal in the event of a valid threat not only to the country’s very existence but also to its sovereignty. Putin's fear of Ukraine receiving permission from Western allies to fire theirlong-range weapons deep into Russia has been exposed.
Therefore Russia bets on nuclear blackmail that the Kremlin exploits in an attempt to compensate for failures and gaps in running a conventional war. Although due to Western restrictions on deep strikes into Russia the invasion force maintains overwhelming air supremacy overDonbas, including by massively deploying glide bombs, even fairly major gains, such as the capture of Vuhledar after 25 months of assault efforts, cause no uplift among the military and even ordinary Russians. Russia has reached an impasse in its war of aggression because Putin tries to ignore battlefield developments, while trying to inspire the public with dubious personnel reshuffles (such as the appointment of the "DPR hero” Zhoga to a position in the Urals). And this is long-term harsh reality for the aggressor state.

For now, Russia retains a dual approach to waging war: applyingscorched earth tactics along the entire front line, especially in the long-suffering Donbas, and orchestrating near-nuclear acts of provocation. Without regard for the mounting casualty toll, the Russian command pursues “meat assaults”, throwing infantry into the grinder, and razing populaces to the ground, the Russian steamroller is advancing westward in the framework of a positional warfare resembling the Battle of the Somme.

The Kursk NPP, located 30 km from the front line and quite vulnerable to attacks due unsecured reactors, is now in the main focus. The Russian command decided to use this moment to try to hold back the Ukrainian forces in a bid to turn weakness into strength.

On October 3, reports emerged claiming a Ukrainian “attack on the Kursk NPP”. A fire broke out in the town of Kurchatov that hosts the plant, but its exact cause of the blaze has become asubject of speculation by Russian propaganda. Although the videos posted across social media show an active fire in an unidentified building with no context provided as to the cause of the blaze, the Russians immediately put the blame on Ukraine.

Although the alleged incident occurred quite far from the NPP, it is being inflated in the media space into almost an attempt by Kyiv to set up another “Chornobyl disaster” at the Kursk NPP. Even Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear operator, came out with a statement, assuring the public that the plant operates with no interruptions.

Meanwhile, it is clear that for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an attack on the Kursk NPP would not be expedient military-wise. But for the Kremlin, simulating a “nuclear” incident is quitebeneficial as this could potentially affect Ukraine’s internationalimage, including in the eyes of arms suppliers.

The Russian side seems to be following its guidebook bymanipulating the statement by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi of August 27, in which he pointed out the risks of a nuclear incident in Kurchatov in the event of an “external” impact on NPP reactors. But here it must be recalled once again that it is Russia that is recognized as the aggressor state at the UN level as the only country that has occupied two nuclear power plants at once. Whilethe irradiated invaders fled from Chornobyl rather quickly, Europe’s largest Zaporizhzhia NPP, located in close proximity to the combat zone, remains occupied to this day. And that’s not to mention the fact that Russian missiles and drones regularly fly over other Ukrainian NPPs, whose infrastructure Russian terrorists perceive as targets.

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